The sweet spot for home prices in Aiken's Cedar Creek Plantation is under $400,000.  The Arthur Hills golf course gets a lot of play but is a bargain for members.

    You wouldn't know a housing crisis is upon us or a recession looms by the crowds at the Live South real estate show yesterday in Greenwich, CT. Exhibitors representing more than 70 residential communities in the south didn't have much downtime during the two hours I spent at the show early in the afternoon.
    Live South is a great way to collect a lot of brochures and information about specific communities but, like most "bazaars," everyone thinks their product is the best.  Until you visit, you won't know how the golf course plays, the proximity of the houses to each other and many of the other nuanced information brochures can't tell you.  If you are interested in visiting any communities in the south, please let me know and I will be happy to put you in touch with a real estate agent in the area of your choice who can help you understand what the brochures and salespeople don't tell you.  There is no cost or obligation.    

    Here are a few observations from my visit to the Live South show yesterday:

• I asked some of the exhibitors how property sales were going. The consistent response was that although transactions had slowed a little, prices were holding up well. This is supported by independent data that shows prices in such markets as Wilmington and Asheville, NC rose around double-digit percentages last year.

• The migration from Florida to the Carolinas continues. Thompson Grove, an articulate young man at The Preserve at Wolf Laurel booth, told me most of that community's sales in recent months have been to Floridians. "They are tired of the summer heat," he said, adding that most of them are opting to live year round in his community, even though there isn't too much to do on the 4,000-foot mountain in the winter. They must really be tired of the heat.

• Despite the challenges and expenses of golf course operation, communities in the south are not shying away from building new layouts. River Landing in Wallace, NC, midway between Raleigh and Wilmington, added another nine since my visit a couple of years ago, bringing their total to 36 holes. And the Rarity communities, strung along the huge Tellico Lake in Tennessee, have opened a Bob Cupp course at Rarity Pointe with water views and a decidedly more challenging layout than their original course at Rarity Bay, which was fun when I played it but way too easy. "We think the new course will challenge the Honors Course in terms of quality," said Rarity consultant John Haney. The Honors course, near Chattanooga, is typically ranked in the top 50 courses in the country. Perhaps a little sales hyperbole there, but the photos of the Rarity course looked nice.

• At times during my stroll through the exhibits, I felt as if I was in a bazaar in Marrakesh. Maybe it was competition among the exhibitors or, perhaps, self-consciousness that they had made an investment in the booth and had better engage customers to pay it off. But I thought the show exhibitors were a tad more aggressive this year than typical, although never anything but friendly. I tried to avert my eyes from a few non-golf communities as I strolled down the aisles of the show, but they stepped so close to me that I could not ignore their entreaties to stop and talk. It was friendly but definitely a change from my experience at past shows.

• As always, Myrtle Beach was the best represented area at the show, with 20 Grand Strand communities participating. But the best representation per capita (or per golf course) was probably Aiken, SC, which is just across the border from Augusta, GA. Representatives from four Aiken area communities - Woodside, Pine Ridge, Cedar Creek and Mount Vintage - parried many questions from show goers looking for a nice lifestyle at reasonable costs. Aiken is one of those in-between areas - neither coastal nor mountain - and home prices reflect it. People looking for an amply sized single-family home in a nice community won't pay more than $400,000 for one in Pine Ridge or Cedar Creek, and they could pay a lot less if they want. These communities are good options if you are willing to share your golf course with daily fee players. Woodside and Mount Vintage, more upscale communities, feature sleek private courses by name designers, and their higher price points reflect that, although Woodside has taken some hits in the past for inconsistent maintenance of its three golf courses.

    Residents of Northern New Jersey, Detroit and Boston will have an opportunity to visit a Live South show over the next few weeks.  The schedule is:  Parsippany (NJ) Hilton February 22-24; Troy (MI) Marriott February 29-March 2; and Burlington (MA) Marriott March 7-9.  Visit LiveSouthShows.com for more information, including how to secure free tickets.

Home prices in communities like Falconhead near Austin, TX, have held up because of job growth at companies in the area and Austin's popularity with retirees. 

    I reconnected yesterday with an insurance agent I hadn't spoken with in 25 years.  Alan sold me disability and life insurance policies back in the early part of my career, but circumstances change, and now I am looking to either convert the policies or just let them lapse.  I called him to discuss my options.
    In the course of conversation, we got around to the current housing market, and Alan said an interesting thing:  "I don't think people can go wrong buying a retirement home, even now."  Noting popular places like Miami, San Diego and Las Vegas, whose housing markets have tanked, I suggested that some people could have gone very wrong if they had bought there three years ago.  "Look," he replied, "this baby boomer

generation is so big and so ready to retire to a new lifestyle that you really can't lose value over time in any of the retirement areas."
    Alan went on to explain that he had purchased a second home in Tampa, FL, a few years ago and runs his business from there and from his Long Island, NY, house, splitting his time pretty equally between both.  He is 61 now and plans to move south permanently in a few years.
    Alan works with many baby boomers at or nearing retirement, so his feel for market trends is worth considering.  First, and most obvious, numbers are on his side.  The 75 million or so boomers, arguably the wealthiest generation in history, are between the ages of 46 and 62.  Sure, some will stay put in retirement especially if their homes are paid off and their kids and friends are nearby.  But many more, like a couple from Ohio I am working with, would rather play golf than shovel snow in February and, anyway, their children and some of their friends have moved away.
    Second, and perhaps more important to the argument, is that this generation is self possessed, selfish really.  I can say that because I am a member of the tribe.  We have always wanted what we wanted and when we wanted it.  And whenever we have latched onto something, as Alan, a leading edge boomer, argued, "prices have always gone higher."  

    Remember when water from the tap was good enough and safe enough for us all?  Then we had the great

notion that spring or purified water in a plastic bottle from God knows where was better, and we were willing to pay $2 per swig for the privilege.  Walking, jogging and bicycling have always been great and free ways to exercise, but we got it into our heads that stationary bikes and treadmills were more convenient, bugger the cost.  (Side note:  Anyone want to buy a like-new Nordic-Trak cheap?  I paid $500 for it and used it twice in 10 years.)
    There is certainly some evidence in southern real estate prices to support the contention that baby boomers are having a salutary effect on the markets.  A number of areas I have visited in the last couple of years are seeing almost housing-boom type price increases despite housing-bust conditions in the rest of the country.  In December, a Money magazine article indicated that Wilmington, NC, had seen a 9.2% increase in real estate prices over the prior 12 months.   Asheville, NC, was even higher, at 10.9%, and Austin, TX, close with 10.8%.  Richmond, Charlotte and Raleigh also showed strong price increases.
    For sure, job growth in these metropolises was probably more important to prices than were retirees.  Demand for homes there, especially new ones, has been high, and retirees have filled a more supplementary role in terms of real estate purchases than a primary one.  But with the brakes now being applied to hiring at large companies, and some even beginning to lay off employees, we may see the boomers assert an even more important, stabilizing role in southern markets...if they can get past a psychological price barrier regarding their current home.  Some of us are having trouble reconciling that our homes are worth 10% less than they were just a year ago, even though some of us are still way ahead of our original purchase price.
    I think of a couple living in the Boston metro area whose heart has been set on a retirement in Asheville, NC.  Last year, homes in some areas of the Boston market depreciated 5% while in Asheville they increased 10.9%.  More of the same in the next few years, and our Boston couple might be priced out of a home in Asheville or have to settle for a much different one than their sights are set on. 

    If your hearts and minds are set on moving south, don't hold out for the last dollar on your primary home.  Deal with the fact your home is likely not worth what it was last month, let alone last year or two years ago.  Accept any fair offer before the spread between your eventual selling price and what you will have to pay in the south a few years hence widens beyond your ability to pay the difference.  
    The harsh but appropriate old line from the stock market is worth repeating here:  "Pigs may get fat, but hogs get slaughtered."

    Note:  I am currently working with a few couples to identify the  areas and communities that best match their lifestyle criteria.  If I can help you, please send me a note.  There is no cost or obligation whatsoever.