The U.S. Commerce Department reported this morning that new home sales fell another 2.8 percent in January to their lowest rate in 13 years.  Not surprisingly, sales prices slipped also, although the overall housing inventory shrank a little.  The report came as Federal Reserve Chairman and Wall Street's most loyal promoter, Ben Bernanke, continued to fiddle before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, promising that the Fed will do what it takes to prop up the beleaguered housing and credit industries.  One wonders just how many more steroid injections the economy can take.
    Meanwhile, a savvy piece on the housing market in the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal today offers
How many more steroid injections can the economy take?

an articulate overview of how we got into this housing mess and a sober way to address it.  In "Let Houses Find a Bottom," author Holman Jenkins, Jr., who edits the political diary subscription web site (PoliticalDiary.com), believes the encouragement of both the Clinton and Bush administrations to spread home ownership to poorer households through ridiculously low interest rates had the unintended consequences of causing rampant speculation by others, many of whom are now simply walking away from their stupid decisions. 
    Yet instead of helping poorer households, lower interest rates actually disadvantaged them.
    "For most low-income households," Mr. Jenkins wrote, "homeownership proved a bad bet, even in a rising market...Their capital gains were subpar or nonexistent even if they managed to hold onto their houses for a decade."  Mortgage costs ate up their gains, the author reasons, and worse, tied them to subpar neighborhoods with bad schools and bad job prospects.
    As for bailing out the hundreds of thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure, those who should have known better and those who didn't, Mr. Jenkins has a thoughtful if radical notion for the government on how to use our tax money.
    "...buy up houses at foreclosure auctions and demolish them," he writes, "especially in neighborhoods likely never to recover."  Doing so, according to Mr. Jenkins, would "nip in the bud the blighted, suburban slums of the future."  That would be a harsh diet indeed, but at least it is one without artificial ingredients.

    Charlotte, NC, was one of only three major metro areas whose home prices increased in 2007, according to the popular S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which reported the latest figures earlier today.  At just 2.3% over the span of last year, Charlotte nosed out Portland, OR (1.2%), and Seattle (.5%).  However, every one of the 20 markets assessed, including Charlotte, went negative from the third quarter to the fourth quarter in 2007.
    Not surprisingly, Miami, at -17.5%, suffered the most severe price drops of all 20 markets in 2007, followed by Las Vegas and Phoenix, both at -15.3%.  Prices in the Tampa, FL, market dropped 13.3% during the year.

A homeowner in Miami contemplating a move to, say, Charlotte, lost something like 20 percentage points of purchasing power last year alone.

According to real estate agents in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia, Floridians are a major source of their business.  Sadly, any Miamian contemplating a move to, say, Charlotte, lost something like 20 percentage points of purchasing power last year alone.  Yikes.   

    Charlotte, whose home prices lost a slender .6% over the last two quarters of 2007, has benefited from solid business growth and stable employment.  I haven't seen comparable data yet from other Carolina cities, such as Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Wilmington, Greenville (SC) and Myrtle Beach, but I am confident that any price erosion in those areas will not compare to losses in northern cities.  For 2007, according to the Case-Shiller study, Boston's prices dropped 3.4%, New York -5.6%, Cleveland -6.3%, Chicago -4.5% and Minneapolis -8%.  
    The spread between falling prices up north and the more stable, if slightly falling, prices in the south add a sense of urgency for those considering a near-term relocation north to south -- or, especially, from Florida to the Carolinas.  Even if prices in markets in the north and south and central Florida rebound, they are not likely to reach the appreciation levels of the Carolinas markets for some years to come. 

    Those waiting much longer to sell their home up north or in Florida before relocating may be burning the candle at both ends.