The respected financial weekly, Barron’s magazine, published an article this past weekend about real estate markets in the U.S. that are undervalued. The implication is that those who live in those markets and are poised to beat a retreat to, say, a golf community in the Southeast might want to cool their jets for a couple of years. Homes in my own Hartford, CT, market, according to Barron’s, have an intrinsic value 10.73% higher than their current median price; in other words, between now and 2019, the average home in the Hartford market should rise by 11% or more. That ranks fourth on the Barron’s list. Two other Connecticut metro markets are second and third rated on the list, with the Allentown, PA, area listed at the top.
        Barron’s could be right on the money, but those who have a plan to relocate but are sitting tight in anticipation their current home will appreciate in value are playing a dangerous game for two main reasons: first, the home they may buy in a few years could very well appreciate at a faster rate and, second, any “loss” they suffer by selling too early will be more than made up by the cost of living expenses they save by moving.
        Let’s say you own a home in the Hartford area whose market value today is $400,000 and you have had your eye on a similarly valued home in a golf community outside Greenville, SC. By Barron’s estimate, your current home is worth $445,000, the price you should fetch if you sell it two years from now (in 2019). But the home in the ever-popular Greenville may appreciate at a rate of at least 5% per year over the next two years, as it has over the last four years. At best, you can hope for a wash; at worst, you will lose some buying power. (Note: Many of the golf communities we follow have seen average home sale price increases of 8% or more over the last three years.)
A resident of any of most Connecticut towns could purchase a home in Pebble Creek near Greenville, SC, and save thousands of dollars a year in expenses.  There is no initiation fee for the 36-hole Pebble Creek Country Club and monthly dues are around $250 per month.
        Cost of living difference is an even more profound reason to consider acting sooner rather than later. According to the web site BestPlaces.net, which provides a helpful calculator to compare the costs of living in hundreds of cities and towns nationwide, Greenville is only 2% cheaper to live than in the city of Hartford. However, Greenville is a full 47% cheaper than my town of Avon, CT, 35% less than nearby Farmington, CT, and half that of the upscale Ridgefield, CT. Any increase in home values in these and most other Connecticut towns will never make up for the savings in cost of living by moving South.
        If you are considering a move South in the next couple of years, give us a shout –- click here –- and we will run the numbers for you and demonstrate it could be time to get a move on.

        From sea to shining sea, President-elect Donald J. Trump has his name emblazoned on the clubhouses and scorecards of a dozen golf courses in the U.S.  By reputation, they are impeccably conditioned and provide member services that justify six-figure joining fees and thousands of dollars in annual dues. Importantly, because the fairways and greens must be mown and the post-round libations and meals must be served, the clubs provide jobs that are nominally good for the local economy.

         But a quick scan of the counties surrounding Trump National Golf Clubs shows that the candidate batted a mere .166, winning only one county, Iredell in North Carolina, by more than a percentage point; he squeaked by 48% to 47% in Dutchess County, NY, his only other victory in the vicinity of his clubs.

         The Bronx, NY provided one of the biggest margins in Secretary Clinton’s favor in any county in the U.S.  One of the five boroughs of New York City, The Bronx was never going to go Trump’s way.  In fact the Trump Golf Links at Ferry Point, built on a former landfill site just short of the Whitestone Bridge, might have provided an extra irritant to local voters.  Trump takes credit for building the golf course, yet some New York City officials have been emphatic that the city built it and Trump was brought in solely to operate it.  (Since the project was well over budget, the battle to claim responsibility seems odd.)  Also, recent news articles indicate that work around the golf course, which opened in 2015, has still not been completed.  Green fees on the Jack Nicklaus designed layout are pegged at $144 for city residents on weekdays and $172 on weekends, not exactly working class friendly.  The rest of us pay $194 and $219 on weekdays and weekends, respectively.

         Five years ago, Trump purchased the financially distressed golf club in the community known as The Pointe on Lake Norman, north of Charlotte, NC, and installed his son Eric to manage it.  Homes in The Pointe are valued from around $600,000 and up, which dovetails nicely with the Trump taste level and fee structure.  Reports are that the Greg Norman golf course is in top-notch shape.

         Trump isn’t about to get a vote of confidence either in one location overseas.  When his lack of international experience came into question during the campaign, Trump referred to the Miss Universe pageant he once ran and, later, to his golf clubs in Dubai and Scotland.  He now owns the fine links at the classic Turnberry on the Scottish coast, but it is the modern course he built on the ocean near Aberdeen that has courted controversy.  When the owner of an adjacent farm refused to sell his land to Trump, the President-elect built dunes so high along one of his fairways that they blocked the view of the ocean that generations of the farm’s occupants had enjoyed.  The promised couple of thousand jobs at the resort have never materialized and some of the Scottish parliamentarians perceived as having greased the skids for environmental and other approvals have paid a political price.  Most recently, Trump has sued a local energy company for placing wind turbines in the waters just off the coast, despoiling the view from the clubhouse and golf course.

         The vote results from the counties surrounding Trump clubs in the U.S. follow: