Hurricane Thoughts

I write this as Hurricane Florence bears down on the area of the coast where North Carolina and South Carolina meet.  A slight shift southward and the surge of ocean water could move across the marshland that separates our vacation home from the ocean.   That has not happened in the 20 years we have owned the condo in Pawleys Island, SC.

The chances of a major storm hitting Myrtle Beach, less than a half hour north of Pawleys Island, is 2.6% per year, according to an appendix in the book Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth.  If I do the math correctly, that works out to about one major storm every 38 years.   But with Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which devastated Charleston, one hour to the south, and caused significant damage in Pawleys Island; Floyd in 1999; and Matthew in 2016, something is going on.  (The same experts say the probability of any hurricane, major or not, hitting Myrtle Beach is once every 10 years.  In the last couple of decades, it has been more like once every 4 years.)

I will skirt the climate change debate here since I am not an expert, although I do believe the science on the ozone layer and some basic assumptions about the effects on climate.  The question for this forum is whether the threat of hurricanes should cause a couple otherwise interested in a coastal home to consider one elsewhere.

The answer to that question is purely personal choice.   My wife and I understood there was a threat of hurricanes in Pawleys Island when we put a deposit on the condo in 2000.  And we have been emboldened, somewhat, by how well our home has survived the storms since then (although Pawleys Plantation suffered a lot of tree damage and road flooding during Hurricane Matthew in 2016.)   Unless Hurricane Florence totally wipes away our vacation home, my wife Connie and I will stay.  As she said in a lemonade-from-lemons moment yesterday, “This might be our chance to redecorate.”  If that sounds glib, understand that insurance we have through FEMA covers all flood damage and the homeowner’s insurance through our condo’s property owner’s association covers HVAC, appliances and our household possessions.  To be honest, I am more worried about long-lasting damage to the Pawleys Plantation golf course; floods go away but 100 year old live oak trees cannot be replaced.

I am most worried, though, about my neighbors who live there full-time.  One couple in our string of condos has decided to stay and ride out the storm, despite the “mandatory” evacuation called for by the Governor and local officials.  Because the condo units have two floors each, our friends will probably be able to escape the expected 10 feet of storm surge—barely.  (The condos are about ¾ mile from the ocean.)

Others of our neighbors have gone to stay with relatives just a couple of miles inland, which doesn’t sound far enough given the forecasts for both storm surge and persistent rainfall.  Another couple picked their boat out from its ocean-side dock and drove it to their home in Columbia, two hours away.  Columbia is expected to get up to a foot of rain over the weekend.

It seems trite to say it, but I will anyway:  You can replace your household possessions but not your lives.  My message to those in the path of this storm:  Take every precaution possible.  Be safe. 

If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.