It may seem trivial to publish a newsletter about golf communities at a time like this. But I believe it is important to look ahead to better times. And maybe some might find a pleasant diversion or two in this month’s Home On The Course. Thank you for your continuing loyalty and interest.

 
April 2020 
Wild Dunes, Isle of Palms, SC

Tis the Season…for “Best”
City & Town Rankings

 

All you need to know about the annual “best” rankings is that few of the rankers agree on which cities and states are truly the best.  Beginning just after the first of each year and continuing through the spring, online and print publications extol the virtues of towns and cities across the country.  I look forward to the rankings for the Southeast Region out of curiosity, as well as a sense of duty to curate for my readers the wide range of choices.  But like a finely cooked meal, these lists are best consumed with a grain of salt.

So here goes, with my recommendations for golf communities to consider in the top towns and cities.  The first set of rankings to catch my eye was posted in Southern Living.  The top two cities on the magazine’s list will come as no surprise to those who celebrate the combination of “charming” and the culinary arts.  Charleston, SC, is #1 and Savannah, GA is #2.  In my opinion, the top choice for golf community in Savannah is clearly The Landings, a 45-year old development that has aged quite gracefully.  I have placed more clients at The Landings than any other community, largely because of its proximity to the city (just 20 minutes) and its six outstanding golf courses.  Charleston offers a wider range of golf communities within a short drive, including Rivertowne and Snee Farm in Mt. Pleasant, just over the Ravenel Bridge; the popular, full-service and upscale Daniel Island, a convenient ride to both city and Charleston’s quite serviceable airport; and, for beach and golf lovers, Wild Dunes on the Isle of Palms.

Of course, no best Southeast city ranking would be complete without Asheville, the ever-popular mountain town in western North Carolina, which ranks #6 on Southern Living’s latest list.  Once described to me as the “San Francisco of the East,” Asheville combines an arts and craft soul with some modern flourishes that attract a wide range of residents to nearby upscale communities like The Cliffs at Walnut Cove and Mountain Air, and to less delux but still high-quality developments like Wolf Laurel and Reems Creek. 

Also included in Southern Living’s top 10 is one of the most underrated cities for golf and retiree lifestyle in the Southeast, Richmond, VA.  Richmond is a tidier version of a major city, with golf communities to fit every playing style and budget, as well as top healthcare facilities, entertainment venues, colleges and universities, and an exploding restaurant scene.  (Southern Living’s top new restaurant in 2019 is located in Richmond).

There is little to argue with Southern Living’s choices, except they rely more on editorial judgment than reader judgment.  At the popular web site, TopRetirements.com, the “best of” ranking is both an assessment of objective criteria and a popularity contest, the result of how many times its readers visit a city’s page at the Top Retirements web site. And on that measure, the site’s “Best of the Best Places to Retire” deems Asheville tops.  The list ranks all places in America, and after a couple of Arizona locations — Prescott and Tucson — the 4th slot is given to Beaufort, SC, a small seacoast town with some huge live oak trees that ooze with Old World charm.  Our choice for golf community in the area is Dataw Island, an old standby with 36 holes of terrific golf (Tom Fazio and Arthur Hills) and some extreme real estate bargains.

I have toured the golf communities in the Rehoboth Beach, DE, area, #5 on Top Retirements’ list, and for those who can ride out a month or two of dicey winter weather, there is much to choose from.  A fine Jack Nicklaus course anchors one of them, the Peninsula Club in Millsboro.

One other annual list is worthy of note because the ranking agents vote with their feet.  It is the annual survey of United Van Lines which assesses the popularity of states by how many of the company’s customers are moving in and out.  By that measure, Florida and South Carolina are overwhelmingly the most popular states in the Southeast, followed by Tennessee, North Carolina and Alabama.  Click here for this year’s United Van Lines survey and map of all 50 states.

 


If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


To My Subscribers  

 

Since war has been declared on Covid-19, I feel comfortable extending the metaphor to say I write this from my “bunker” in Connecticut.  I imposed shelter in place on myself almost three weeks ago after reading the Center for Disease Control warning about high-risk factors. Although I feel generally terrific, I check most of the boxes, including diabetes, prior heart disease and age.  (I turn 72 in a few weeks .)

Absent those issues, I probably would have sheltered in place in early March anyway.  Reports from other parts of the world were clearly serious, and mindful that U.S. airlines carry nearly one billion passengers a year, many from other parts of the world, a pandemic reaching the U.S. was a safe, if ugly, bet.  I hope all of you have heeded the warnings from the experts and ignored those who have minimized the risks.  It is trite to say these are challenging times for all of us, but it never gets old to urge friends and family to stay safe and well.  Listen to the medical experts and scientists — and then to your own best judgment.

I thought about not publishing a newsletter until the virus had passed; sharing golf community information seems trivial in light of the pandemic.  But some day, soon we all hope, this too shall pass, and the search for a golf home will recommence, possibly soon after.  I expect the unleashing of a pent-up demand for a retirement lifestyle for which so many of you have worked hard — and deserve.  I hope a continuing flow of information and observations will be a pleasant diversion in the meantime.

Stay safe and well.

Larry

 

Golf Communities, Golfer’s Hunker Down

A note from the management company in charge of Pawleys Plantation in Pawleys Island, SC, last week indicated that two residents of the community had contracted Covid-19, and that one had been hospitalized.  My wife Connie and I own a vacation condo in Pawleys Plantation. Although most residents there are now sheltering in place, golf play continues with some new rules and regulations.  For example, only one person is permitted per golf cart, except where riders are from the same household.  The pro shop is still open but you don’t go to the pro shop to sign up for your round.  Walking at Pawleys Plantation, a rarity, is now permitted at all times but you are still charged for the typically mandatory golf cart, minus a $5 discount.  (If you are alone, you pay for only half the normal rate for a two-rider cart.)  There is no fee for walking after 2 pm. The guys at the bag drop will put your bag of clubs on a cart but that is the last time they will handle it per round. Members have been asked to remove their clubs from the indoor storage area for the foreseeable future.

A friend at The Landings in Savannah called earlier on the day I write this to say he was heading out to one of his community’s six golf courses under the same restrictions as those above (e.g. a foursome is required to take four separate carts).  This is pretty much the standard as well for all public golf facilities where play is still permitted.  A couple of weeks ago in Connecticut, for example, the Governor first included our state’s golf courses on the list of “non-essential businesses” and announced they would be closed indefinitely.  When the state golf association and, perhaps, one or two high-level, golf-playing donors pointed out to him that social distancing would be easy to practice on a golf course and that a pleasant four-hour distraction would help relieve stress, he relented.  My favorite golf courses within 30 minutes of my home are now open, but with the peak risk-level in Connecticut starting about now and expected to last until the end of May, I will wait for a general “all-clear” (and the much warmer temperatures of late spring in New England).

I had looked forward to this coming season, like no other in recent memory, for two reasons:  First, I had reserved lodging and flights to the Highlands of Scotland with a friend and brother in law, and was working on tee times on the North Sea, when it became clear Covid-19 would ruin those plans.  The trip will have to wait for late this year or, more likely, 2021.  The second reason is that the older I get, the more realistic my chances to attain that mythical “shoot your age” score.  

Last year, with my handicap of 10, I realized, as I stood on the 15th tee of my favorite local golf course, that I had a reasonable mathematical chance of doing it (if I went one under par for the last four holes).  A double bogey ruined that dream.  Of course, if my next round is not until next year, my 73rd, that enhances my chances, at least on paper.  But with my local fitness center closed, and no treadmill in our house, I am going to have to figure out a workout regimen in order not to simply “age in place.”

If you plan to get out to your local or golf community course in the coming days, enjoy.  The coronavirus has given new meaning to “managing the golf course.”  Manage safely. 

 

...if it ain’t got that swing

For all those, young and old, who are young at heart, this should provide a pleasant diversion.

 

*|YOUTUBE: [$vid=34viwApgPyE,$max_width=500,$title=Y,$border=Y,$trim_border=N,$ratings=N,$views=N]|*

 

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


 
April 2020 
Wild Dunes, Isle of Palms, SC

Tis the Season…for “Best”
City & Town Rankings

 

All you need to know about the annual “best” rankings is that few of the rankers agree on which cities and states are truly the best.  Beginning just after the first of each year and continuing through the spring, online and print publications extol the virtues of towns and cities across the country.  I look forward to the rankings for the Southeast Region out of curiosity, as well as a sense of duty to curate for my readers the wide range of choices.  But like a finely cooked meal, these lists are best consumed with a grain of salt.

So here goes, with my recommendations for golf communities to consider in the top towns and cities.  The first set of rankings to catch my eye was posted in Southern Living.  The top two cities on the magazine’s list will come as no surprise to those who celebrate the combination of “charming” and the culinary arts.  Charleston, SC, is #1 and Savannah, GA is #2.  In my opinion, the top choice for golf community in Savannah is clearly The Landings, a 45-year old development that has aged quite gracefully.  I have placed more clients at The Landings than any other community, largely because of its proximity to the city (just 20 minutes) and its six outstanding golf courses.  Charleston offers a wider range of golf communities within a short drive, including Rivertowne and Snee Farm in Mt. Pleasant, just over the Ravenel Bridge; the popular, full-service and upscale Daniel Island, a convenient ride to both city and Charleston’s quite serviceable airport; and, for beach and golf lovers, Wild Dunes on the Isle of Palms.

Of course, no best Southeast city ranking would be complete without Asheville, the ever-popular mountain town in western North Carolina, which ranks #6 on Southern Living’s latest list.  Once described to me as the “San Francisco of the East,” Asheville combines an arts and craft soul with some modern flourishes that attract a wide range of residents to nearby upscale communities like The Cliffs at Walnut Cove and Mountain Air, and to less delux but still high-quality developments like Wolf Laurel and Reems Creek. 

Also included in Southern Living’s top 10 is one of the most underrated cities for golf and retiree lifestyle in the Southeast, Richmond, VA.  Richmond is a tidier version of a major city, with golf communities to fit every playing style and budget, as well as top healthcare facilities, entertainment venues, colleges and universities, and an exploding restaurant scene.  (Southern Living’s top new restaurant in 2019 is located in Richmond).

There is little to argue with Southern Living’s choices, except they rely more on editorial judgment than reader judgment.  At the popular web site, TopRetirements.com, the “best of” ranking is both an assessment of objective criteria and a popularity contest, the result of how many times its readers visit a city’s page at the Top Retirements web site. And on that measure, the site’s “Best of the Best Places to Retire” deems Asheville tops.  The list ranks all places in America, and after a couple of Arizona locations — Prescott and Tucson — the 4th slot is given to Beaufort, SC, a small seacoast town with some huge live oak trees that ooze with Old World charm.  Our choice for golf community in the area is Dataw Island, an old standby with 36 holes of terrific golf (Tom Fazio and Arthur Hills) and some extreme real estate bargains.

I have toured the golf communities in the Rehoboth Beach, DE, area, #5 on Top Retirements’ list, and for those who can ride out a month or two of dicey winter weather, there is much to choose from.  A fine Jack Nicklaus course anchors one of them, the Peninsula Club in Millsboro.

One other annual list is worthy of note because the ranking agents vote with their feet.  It is the annual survey of United Van Lines which assesses the popularity of states by how many of the company’s customers are moving in and out.  By that measure, Florida and South Carolina are overwhelmingly the most popular states in the Southeast, followed by Tennessee, North Carolina and Alabama.  Click here for this year’s United Van Lines survey and map of all 50 states.

 


If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


To My Subscribers  

 

Since war has been declared on Covid-19, I feel comfortable extending the metaphor to say I write this from my “bunker” in Connecticut.  I imposed shelter in place on myself almost three weeks ago after reading the Center for Disease Control warning about high-risk factors. Although I feel generally terrific, I check most of the boxes, including diabetes, prior heart disease and age.  (I turn 72 in a few weeks .)

Absent those issues, I probably would have sheltered in place in early March anyway.  Reports from other parts of the world were clearly serious, and mindful that U.S. airlines carry nearly one billion passengers a year, many from other parts of the world, a pandemic reaching the U.S. was a safe, if ugly, bet.  I hope all of you have heeded the warnings from the experts and ignored those who have minimized the risks.  It is trite to say these are challenging times for all of us, but it never gets old to urge friends and family to stay safe and well.  Listen to the medical experts and scientists — and then to your own best judgment.

I thought about not publishing a newsletter until the virus had passed; sharing golf community information seems trivial in light of the pandemic.  But some day, soon we all hope, this too shall pass, and the search for a golf home will recommence, possibly soon after.  I expect the unleashing of a pent-up demand for a retirement lifestyle for which so many of you have worked hard — and deserve.  I hope a continuing flow of information and observations will be a pleasant diversion in the meantime.

Stay safe and well.

Larry

 

Golf Communities, Golfer’s Hunker Down

A note from the management company in charge of Pawleys Plantation in Pawleys Island, SC, last week indicated that two residents of the community had contracted Covid-19, and that one had been hospitalized.  My wife Connie and I own a vacation condo in Pawleys Plantation. Although most residents there are now sheltering in place, golf play continues with some new rules and regulations.  For example, only one person is permitted per golf cart, except where riders are from the same household.  The pro shop is still open but you don’t go to the pro shop to sign up for your round.  Walking at Pawleys Plantation, a rarity, is now permitted at all times but you are still charged for the typically mandatory golf cart, minus a $5 discount.  (If you are alone, you pay for only half the normal rate for a two-rider cart.)  There is no fee for walking after 2 pm. The guys at the bag drop will put your bag of clubs on a cart but that is the last time they will handle it per round. Members have been asked to remove their clubs from the indoor storage area for the foreseeable future.

A friend at The Landings in Savannah called earlier on the day I write this to say he was heading out to one of his community’s six golf courses under the same restrictions as those above (e.g. a foursome is required to take four separate carts).  This is pretty much the standard as well for all public golf facilities where play is still permitted.  A couple of weeks ago in Connecticut, for example, the Governor first included our state’s golf courses on the list of “non-essential businesses” and announced they would be closed indefinitely.  When the state golf association and, perhaps, one or two high-level, golf-playing donors pointed out to him that social distancing would be easy to practice on a golf course and that a pleasant four-hour distraction would help relieve stress, he relented.  My favorite golf courses within 30 minutes of my home are now open, but with the peak risk-level in Connecticut starting about now and expected to last until the end of May, I will wait for a general “all-clear” (and the much warmer temperatures of late spring in New England).

I had looked forward to this coming season, like no other in recent memory, for two reasons:  First, I had reserved lodging and flights to the Highlands of Scotland with a friend and brother in law, and was working on tee times on the North Sea, when it became clear Covid-19 would ruin those plans.  The trip will have to wait for late this year or, more likely, 2021.  The second reason is that the older I get, the more realistic my chances to attain that mythical “shoot your age” score.  

Last year, with my handicap of 10, I realized, as I stood on the 15th tee of my favorite local golf course, that I had a reasonable mathematical chance of doing it (if I went one under par for the last four holes).  A double bogey ruined that dream.  Of course, if my next round is not until next year, my 73rd, that enhances my chances, at least on paper.  But with my local fitness center closed, and no treadmill in our house, I am going to have to figure out a workout regimen in order not to simply “age in place.”

If you plan to get out to your local or golf community course in the coming days, enjoy.  The coronavirus has given new meaning to “managing the golf course.”  Manage safely. 

 

...if it ain’t got that swing

For all those, young and old, who are young at heart, this should provide a pleasant diversion.

 

*|YOUTUBE: [$vid=34viwApgPyE,$max_width=500,$title=Y,$border=Y,$trim_border=N,$ratings=N,$views=N]|*

 

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


-->

Apologies for missing the February edition. I was in Florida for the wedding of my my son Tim, who works for the Golf Channel. I hope you think the wait for the March edition was worth it. We interview one of the most savvy golf community developers I know, Ken Kirkman of Carolina Colours in New Bern, NC who also helped burnish the outstanding coastal communities of Bald Head Island and Landfall. Enjoy.

 
March 2020 
Carolina Colours, New Bern, NC

Carolina Colours, New Bern, NC

 

New Bern is a 300-year-old town with a lot of new blood residents in the form of baby boomers and former serviceman who were stationed nearby during their careers.  The city is both rich in history and geography, boasting the confluence of two significant waterways, the Neuse and the Trent, which eventually flow into the Atlantic less than a half hour away.  That ranks New Bern up there with historic seafaring towns, but that is hardly its only nod to history.  The city served as the state capital for 46 years in the 18th Century (first as the colonial government capital) before it was moved to Raleigh.  But New Bern is even more famous because Pepsi Cola was invented there in a local New Bern pharmacy in 1893, just seven years after the debut of Coca Cola in Georgia.

The unusually named Carolina Colours golf community is located just 10 minutes over the river from center city New Bern and has attracted a consistent stream of baby boomers from a variety of geographies.  They are a garrulous and friendly group, as I found out during one of their frequent Friday night socials.  The golf course, designed by Bill Love, is perfectly suited to a retiree’s game, which is to say the better players can increase the challenge by moving back a tee box or two, and the rest of us will be more than content with the regular  “men’s” and “ladies” tee boxes.  The course is carved through a Carolina pines forest, with homes set back and surrounded by enough trees to make the layout feel more isolated than it is.  There isn’t much water in play although the bunkering is imaginative and, often enough, challenging.

The golf club is semi-private, meaning membership is optional for residents.  Those planning to play a few times each week will find membership financially beneficial after a couple of years.  The course is popular with a number of locals who live outside Carolina Colours and offers former Yankee and midwestern residents the opportunities to mingle and get to know the local community on a fast track.

Because Carolina Colours is less than two decades old and was understandably slow to develop just before and during the 2008 recession, the housing stock appears fresh and a good couple of decades away from needing updating.  Custom homes run in the mid $400s, with spec homes in the mid $300s.  D.R. Horton, the national builder of reasonably priced housing, has carved out an area for a group of homes priced just below $300,000.

Please This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you would like an introduction to Carolina Colours.  

 

Landfall, Wilmington, NC

Wilmington is one of the most popular towns in the Carolinas, both for young professionals and retirees.  Landfall, which sits just 10 minutes from the ocean and a similar distance from center city Wilmington, has been a major beneficiary of the city’s popularity.  Currently, there are a paucity of homes listed for sale inside the golf community’s gates; that, of course, is keeping home prices at near record levels.

Landfall has plenty to recommend it, in addition to its location.  You don’t often find 45 holes of golf designed by Jack Nicklaus (27 holes) and the late Pete Dye (18) adjacent to each other inside the gates. (Colleton River in Bluffton, SC, comes to mind.)  Early on, Landfall ranked up there in terms of private golf fees, but the recession made for a more rational approach, dropping initiation fees from $50,000 to $20,000 today, and becoming more inviting not only to retirees but also to an ever growing number of local young professionals.

The community and golf course first opened in 1987 and was immediately a hit with those retirees looking for a private enclave near the ocean that included an exclusive club.  In the late 1990s, members purchased the club from the developer but soon after suffered a bit of buyer’s remorse.  Younger residents with younger thinking started lobbying for a more casual approach to club life, and they prevailed.  Today, Landfall is still welcoming to baby boomers, especially those not inclined toward a stuffy, exclusive atmosphere.

As mentioned, home prices have stiffened as available inventory has dropped.  The lowest priced single-family home I found during a search was a 3 bedroom, 3 bath, 2,100 square foot home priced at $429,000.  There are some lots still available in the 33-year-old community starting at $225,000, but count on construction costs approaching $200 per square foot.

Please This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you would like an introduction to Landfall.

 


If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


For Price Conscious,
Experienced Developer Says
Golf Community Resales the Way to Go

 

Ken Kirkman has three decades of experience developing some of the most successful golf communities on the east coast.  They include Bald Head Island, Landfall (Wilmington, NC) and his latest project, Carolina Colours in New Bern, NC, which opened in 2005.  He is still called upon by numerous planned communities to offer advice and guidance as those large communities assess and respond to changing market trends, especially in the wake of the 2008 recession.

When I have a question or need advice about the golf community market, Ken is my go-to contact.  As we begin a new decade, I thought it would be a good idea to ask him, based on his experience at the North Carolina communities, for his views on the current state of the industry and what he sees ahead.  Here is an edited version of our conversation about Landfall and Carolina Colours.

 

 Landfall has always struck me as a rather conservative, almost formal golf community.  Is that impression accurate?

Not anymore.  It may have seemed that way 30 years ago when, for the most part, residents were mostly New England retirees looking for an ultra-private enclave.  But around 2000, things began to change.  Members purchased the golf club from the developers and attempted to run it as a traditional, very private club.  But after a couple of years of financial shortfalls, the Club realized it needed to seek members from outside of Landfall, while at the same time more and more local young successful people, many of them entrepreneurs, were moving in.  The younger group was more causal in orientation and as their percentage of membership increased and the original members aged out, the Club became more and more informal.

 

It was essentially the “formal” club members versus the “casual” ones?

Precisely.  The older group had certain expectations of what a country club should offer in the way of services and decorum and that didn’t match the trend toward more casual.  The older people eventually moved on, the younger ones moved in, and today about 30% of residents are working locally.  Those young families were only 10% back in 2000.  Few want a formal club in Wilmington or elsewhere anymore.

 

Have you seen a change in country club membership with the change in demographics?

Yes.  Back in the 1990s, at the peak of golf course community development, about 60% of Landfall’s residents were active golfers.  Today, that number is about 30%, and the drop-off is one reason why you are seeing relatively few new golf communities built across the country.  To support a private golf course, you need between 1,200 and 2,000 homesites.  [Editor’s note:  Thirty percent of 1,200 is 400 families which, most golf course officials indicate, is the proper number of members for viability.]

 

So size matters when it comes to building a private golf course?  Was that a factor in opening Carolina Colours as a semi-private club?

Exactly.  With only 200 homes at Carolina Colours and a maximum of 1100 homesites when built out, there is no way we could support a private club, at least not until near build-out.  We added 35 new homes last year, and golf membership remained at just 130, and that includes some local people from the New Bern community.  A few things confirm we made the proper decision.  Half of our annual rounds of golf come from members, half from outside play, and the total number of rounds was up about 20% in 2019, to a total of 17,000 annually.  Our men’s golf association added 14 members last year.  [Editor’s note:  The cost for property owners to join the Carolina Colours golf club is an equity contribution of $6,000.  Monthly dues are $198 per couple and $175 for an individual golfer.  Ken estimates that the initiation fee will be made up in “free” golf within three or four years.  Some members, he told me, play five times a week.]

 

With 45 holes of golf — Jack Nicklaus and Pete Dye — how is Landfall’s country club doing?  The costs must be significantly higher than at Carolina Colours.

After the recession, the club dropped its initial equity contribution from $50,000 to $20,000.  That, and the new, more casual atmosphere drove an increase in membership to the point that there is now a waiting list for new members in the full-golf category.  Dues for full golf membership run around $700 a month.

 

Are non-golfing retirees taking up golf?

Our pros at Carolina Colours teach a beginner’s class every spring, as well as a refresher course for those who want it.  The beginners class has up to 12 participants each year and, out of that group, two or three become golf members.  About a dozen of our 130 full-golf members actually took up the game after retirement.

 

With baby boomers still retiring at an impressive rate, and a slowdown in the new construction of golf communities, I have been reading a lot about an inventory crisis in some golf communities.  Is that true at Carolina Colours?  And if so, what is your advice for those currently considering a golf community home?

We don’t have that inventory issue at Carolina Colours.  Everything is pretty much in balance.  But like other golf communities with lots for sale, we do have something of a cost crisis because roads and other infrastructure costs are going nuts.  Those costs add as much as $40,000 in hard and soft costs to the preparation of each lot, and that is without land cost.  The $40k in costs is up from $15,000 per lot just 10 years ago.  The spread between the cost of a resale home and an identical new one has widened today, from the historical 5% to 10% to as much as 15% or more.  All in all, new homes, including the price of a lot, are about 25% more expensive than they were just five years ago.

If I were going to retire in the next three years, I would determine the premium I am willing to pay to get a new home, built to my specifications as compared to a home on the resale market that comes close to what I want.  If the spread is too great, go with the resale.

 

Is Landfall going through a similar situation?

No, it is a totally different set of circumstances.  First of all, 2,000 homes are already built at Landfall, which was initially developed in the late 1970s.  There are only a handful of lots remaining.  Second, Wilmington has become a popular place to live for both retirees and young professionals.  Out of those 2,000 homes, only 54 are currently on the market, which is the lowest percentage in the community’s history by about 30%.  Therefore, on the one hand, virtually all properties for sale at Landfall are resales, which would normally provide more value than new construction.  But the historically tight inventory is propping up resale prices.  The average price of a home at Landfall is currently around $750,000.  (Editor’s note:  The average spec home price at Carolina Colours averages around $375,000, but national builder D.R. Horton is offering some homes just under $300,000.)

Thanks Ken.

 

Please see accompanying sidebar for notes on both Landfall and Carolina Colours.

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


 
March 2020 
Carolina Colours, New Bern, NC

Carolina Colours, New Bern, NC

 

New Bern is a 300-year-old town with a lot of new blood residents in the form of baby boomers and former serviceman who were stationed nearby during their careers.  The city is both rich in history and geography, boasting the confluence of two significant waterways, the Neuse and the Trent, which eventually flow into the Atlantic less than a half hour away.  That ranks New Bern up there with historic seafaring towns, but that is hardly its only nod to history.  The city served as the state capital for 46 years in the 18th Century (first as the colonial government capital) before it was moved to Raleigh.  But New Bern is even more famous because Pepsi Cola was invented there in a local New Bern pharmacy in 1893, just seven years after the debut of Coca Cola in Georgia.

The unusually named Carolina Colours golf community is located just 10 minutes over the river from center city New Bern and has attracted a consistent stream of baby boomers from a variety of geographies.  They are a garrulous and friendly group, as I found out during one of their frequent Friday night socials.  The golf course, designed by Bill Love, is perfectly suited to a retiree’s game, which is to say the better players can increase the challenge by moving back a tee box or two, and the rest of us will be more than content with the regular  “men’s” and “ladies” tee boxes.  The course is carved through a Carolina pines forest, with homes set back and surrounded by enough trees to make the layout feel more isolated than it is.  There isn’t much water in play although the bunkering is imaginative and, often enough, challenging.

The golf club is semi-private, meaning membership is optional for residents.  Those planning to play a few times each week will find membership financially beneficial after a couple of years.  The course is popular with a number of locals who live outside Carolina Colours and offers former Yankee and midwestern residents the opportunities to mingle and get to know the local community on a fast track.

Because Carolina Colours is less than two decades old and was understandably slow to develop just before and during the 2008 recession, the housing stock appears fresh and a good couple of decades away from needing updating.  Custom homes run in the mid $400s, with spec homes in the mid $300s.  D.R. Horton, the national builder of reasonably priced housing, has carved out an area for a group of homes priced just below $300,000.

Please This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you would like an introduction to Carolina Colours.  

 

Landfall, Wilmington, NC

Wilmington is one of the most popular towns in the Carolinas, both for young professionals and retirees.  Landfall, which sits just 10 minutes from the ocean and a similar distance from center city Wilmington, has been a major beneficiary of the city’s popularity.  Currently, there are a paucity of homes listed for sale inside the golf community’s gates; that, of course, is keeping home prices at near record levels.

Landfall has plenty to recommend it, in addition to its location.  You don’t often find 45 holes of golf designed by Jack Nicklaus (27 holes) and the late Pete Dye (18) adjacent to each other inside the gates. (Colleton River in Bluffton, SC, comes to mind.)  Early on, Landfall ranked up there in terms of private golf fees, but the recession made for a more rational approach, dropping initiation fees from $50,000 to $20,000 today, and becoming more inviting not only to retirees but also to an ever growing number of local young professionals.

The community and golf course first opened in 1987 and was immediately a hit with those retirees looking for a private enclave near the ocean that included an exclusive club.  In the late 1990s, members purchased the club from the developer but soon after suffered a bit of buyer’s remorse.  Younger residents with younger thinking started lobbying for a more casual approach to club life, and they prevailed.  Today, Landfall is still welcoming to baby boomers, especially those not inclined toward a stuffy, exclusive atmosphere.

As mentioned, home prices have stiffened as available inventory has dropped.  The lowest priced single-family home I found during a search was a 3 bedroom, 3 bath, 2,100 square foot home priced at $429,000.  There are some lots still available in the 33-year-old community starting at $225,000, but count on construction costs approaching $200 per square foot.

Please This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you would like an introduction to Landfall.

 


If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


For Price Conscious,
Experienced Developer Says
Golf Community Resales the Way to Go

 

Ken Kirkman has three decades of experience developing some of the most successful golf communities on the east coast.  They include Bald Head Island, Landfall (Wilmington, NC) and his latest project, Carolina Colours in New Bern, NC, which opened in 2005.  He is still called upon by numerous planned communities to offer advice and guidance as those large communities assess and respond to changing market trends, especially in the wake of the 2008 recession.

When I have a question or need advice about the golf community market, Ken is my go-to contact.  As we begin a new decade, I thought it would be a good idea to ask him, based on his experience at the North Carolina communities, for his views on the current state of the industry and what he sees ahead.  Here is an edited version of our conversation about Landfall and Carolina Colours.

 

 Landfall has always struck me as a rather conservative, almost formal golf community.  Is that impression accurate?

Not anymore.  It may have seemed that way 30 years ago when, for the most part, residents were mostly New England retirees looking for an ultra-private enclave.  But around 2000, things began to change.  Members purchased the golf club from the developers and attempted to run it as a traditional, very private club.  But after a couple of years of financial shortfalls, the Club realized it needed to seek members from outside of Landfall, while at the same time more and more local young successful people, many of them entrepreneurs, were moving in.  The younger group was more causal in orientation and as their percentage of membership increased and the original members aged out, the Club became more and more informal.

 

It was essentially the “formal” club members versus the “casual” ones?

Precisely.  The older group had certain expectations of what a country club should offer in the way of services and decorum and that didn’t match the trend toward more casual.  The older people eventually moved on, the younger ones moved in, and today about 30% of residents are working locally.  Those young families were only 10% back in 2000.  Few want a formal club in Wilmington or elsewhere anymore.

 

Have you seen a change in country club membership with the change in demographics?

Yes.  Back in the 1990s, at the peak of golf course community development, about 60% of Landfall’s residents were active golfers.  Today, that number is about 30%, and the drop-off is one reason why you are seeing relatively few new golf communities built across the country.  To support a private golf course, you need between 1,200 and 2,000 homesites.  [Editor’s note:  Thirty percent of 1,200 is 400 families which, most golf course officials indicate, is the proper number of members for viability.]

 

So size matters when it comes to building a private golf course?  Was that a factor in opening Carolina Colours as a semi-private club?

Exactly.  With only 200 homes at Carolina Colours and a maximum of 1100 homesites when built out, there is no way we could support a private club, at least not until near build-out.  We added 35 new homes last year, and golf membership remained at just 130, and that includes some local people from the New Bern community.  A few things confirm we made the proper decision.  Half of our annual rounds of golf come from members, half from outside play, and the total number of rounds was up about 20% in 2019, to a total of 17,000 annually.  Our men’s golf association added 14 members last year.  [Editor’s note:  The cost for property owners to join the Carolina Colours golf club is an equity contribution of $6,000.  Monthly dues are $198 per couple and $175 for an individual golfer.  Ken estimates that the initiation fee will be made up in “free” golf within three or four years.  Some members, he told me, play five times a week.]

 

With 45 holes of golf — Jack Nicklaus and Pete Dye — how is Landfall’s country club doing?  The costs must be significantly higher than at Carolina Colours.

After the recession, the club dropped its initial equity contribution from $50,000 to $20,000.  That, and the new, more casual atmosphere drove an increase in membership to the point that there is now a waiting list for new members in the full-golf category.  Dues for full golf membership run around $700 a month.

 

Are non-golfing retirees taking up golf?

Our pros at Carolina Colours teach a beginner’s class every spring, as well as a refresher course for those who want it.  The beginners class has up to 12 participants each year and, out of that group, two or three become golf members.  About a dozen of our 130 full-golf members actually took up the game after retirement.

 

With baby boomers still retiring at an impressive rate, and a slowdown in the new construction of golf communities, I have been reading a lot about an inventory crisis in some golf communities.  Is that true at Carolina Colours?  And if so, what is your advice for those currently considering a golf community home?

We don’t have that inventory issue at Carolina Colours.  Everything is pretty much in balance.  But like other golf communities with lots for sale, we do have something of a cost crisis because roads and other infrastructure costs are going nuts.  Those costs add as much as $40,000 in hard and soft costs to the preparation of each lot, and that is without land cost.  The $40k in costs is up from $15,000 per lot just 10 years ago.  The spread between the cost of a resale home and an identical new one has widened today, from the historical 5% to 10% to as much as 15% or more.  All in all, new homes, including the price of a lot, are about 25% more expensive than they were just five years ago.

If I were going to retire in the next three years, I would determine the premium I am willing to pay to get a new home, built to my specifications as compared to a home on the resale market that comes close to what I want.  If the spread is too great, go with the resale.

 

Is Landfall going through a similar situation?

No, it is a totally different set of circumstances.  First of all, 2,000 homes are already built at Landfall, which was initially developed in the late 1970s.  There are only a handful of lots remaining.  Second, Wilmington has become a popular place to live for both retirees and young professionals.  Out of those 2,000 homes, only 54 are currently on the market, which is the lowest percentage in the community’s history by about 30%.  Therefore, on the one hand, virtually all properties for sale at Landfall are resales, which would normally provide more value than new construction.  But the historically tight inventory is propping up resale prices.  The average price of a home at Landfall is currently around $750,000.  (Editor’s note:  The average spec home price at Carolina Colours averages around $375,000, but national builder D.R. Horton is offering some homes just under $300,000.)

Thanks Ken.

 

Please see accompanying sidebar for notes on both Landfall and Carolina Colours.

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

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Our new site OffTheBeatenCartPath.com has just been launched. Check it out!

 It took us a little extra time, and it is still a work in progress, but our new web site has just launched, and I wanted you to be among the first to know it.  

savannah-lakes-tara-course-s.jpg
 
January 2020 
Savannah Lakes (Tara Course), McCormick, SC
 

Launched:  Our new web site,
Off The Beaten Cart Path

 

OffTheBeatenCartPath.com

 

It took us a little extra time, and it is still a work in progress, but our new web site has just launched, and I wanted you to be among the first to know it.  (I will post an announcement at GolfCommunityReviews.com shortly.)

The new site is the culmination of many decades of my dreaming about how to share golf course discoveries, those you stumble upon without any preconceived notions, only to unearth a hidden gem.  That is what many of the golf courses I have played over the last 50-plus years have been like for me, and I am sure for most of my fellow golfers.

This is why a key component of the new site will be inviting our readers to share their own reviews of these off the beaten path courses.  Given five decades of golfing, I could post a review of a different course every five days or so for the next year or two, but mine should not be the only takes (nor do I intend to work quite that hard). If you have a favorite course, please let us know.

In the coming weeks and months, I will be adding some additional features, including post-round dining recommendations near — or at — the golf courses we review.  We will also strive to post more photos since pictures of a golf course can often communicate as much as words.

If you would like to review your favorite out of the way course — our definition of that is as broad as the word “underappreciated” — or make suggestions about the new site, please send a note through the OffTheBeatenCartPath.com web site — or to me directly at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Thank you for being a dedicated subscriber to Home On The Course. 


Keney Park, Hartford, CT.  OffTheBeatenCartPath.com is more about golf courses that are unknown, or under-appreciated, whether way out there in a rural location or in a city.

 

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


savannah-lakes-tara-course-s.jpg
 
January 2020 
Savannah Lakes (Tara Course), McCormick, SC
 

Launched:  Our new web site,
Off The Beaten Cart Path

 

OffTheBeatenCartPath.com

 

It took us a little extra time, and it is still a work in progress, but our new web site has just launched, and I wanted you to be among the first to know it.  (I will post an announcement at GolfCommunityReviews.com shortly.)

The new site is the culmination of many decades of my dreaming about how to share golf course discoveries, those you stumble upon without any preconceived notions, only to unearth a hidden gem.  That is what many of the golf courses I have played over the last 50-plus years have been like for me, and I am sure for most of my fellow golfers.

This is why a key component of the new site will be inviting our readers to share their own reviews of these off the beaten path courses.  Given five decades of golfing, I could post a review of a different course every five days or so for the next year or two, but mine should not be the only takes (nor do I intend to work quite that hard). If you have a favorite course, please let us know.

In the coming weeks and months, I will be adding some additional features, including post-round dining recommendations near — or at — the golf courses we review.  We will also strive to post more photos since pictures of a golf course can often communicate as much as words.

If you would like to review your favorite out of the way course — our definition of that is as broad as the word “underappreciated” — or make suggestions about the new site, please send a note through the OffTheBeatenCartPath.com web site — or to me directly at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Thank you for being a dedicated subscriber to Home On The Course. 


Keney Park, Hartford, CT.  OffTheBeatenCartPath.com is more about golf courses that are unknown, or under-appreciated, whether way out there in a rural location or in a city.

 

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


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An active decade ends, another begins and, like migratory birds, baby boomers are still heading south. In this issue we look back a bit at the twenty teens but look ahead with what we hope is 20/20 vision to what the coming decade holds for the economy, real estate and golf. We also take a look at the quintessential golf and real estate “laboratory” of Myrtle Beach for a taste of what lies immediately ahead.

 
January 2020 
True Blue Golf Club, Pawleys Island, SC

Myrtle Beach Defines a Decade

We humans tend to celebrate round numbers.  I write this mere hours after the ball dropped in Times Square in front of tens of thousands of people celebrating a specific cycle of 365 days.  The newspapers and magazines are filled with stories about highlights — and a few lowlights — of a decade that ended at midnight and a new one that started just after.

In reality, a decade can start and end anywhere you want it to, as long as it comprises 10 years exactly.  In terms of the life span of golf communities, I would argue that the previous decade ended — and a new one began — with the 2008 recession, which threw the entire real estate market into chaos, caused some golf communities to close and others to change in fundamental and long lasting ways.  That decade from 2008 to 2018 was one of restoration, as golf communities could no longer count on an endless supply of golf-interested baby boomers and were forced to accommodate a swath of retirees less interested in golf.  Myrtle Beach, the quintessential area for golfing retirees, as well as visiting golfers, suffered as much as any area. The Grand Strand is littered with golf communities whose former fairways and greens are now filled with condos and small single-family homes — assuming they aren’t populated with overgrown grass and tall weeds.  (The latest victim, Indian Wells, is a fine public course I have enjoyed playing over the last few decades.)

Golf lost a few million regular players during that ’08 to ’18 decade, and that meant golf courses that were neither efficiently run nor well-designed faced financial crises.  Myrtle Beach, which is the ultimate symbol of golf-centric areas, became a microcosm of what happens when an economy hits the skids and discretionary income dries up.  Troubled golf courses became easy targets for any group of people with cash.  A few Myrtle Beach golf course operators tacked on local courses, for pennies on the dollar, to their already established operations, creating multi-course memberships for $99 and up. Since Chinese companies in the early 2010s were flush with cash and eager to take advantage of the EB-5 Visa program that offers permanent residency for certain investments in American companies (including golf courses), one Chinese firm purchased 23 of the Myrtle Beach Grand Strand’s most iconic layouts.  Retirees with an itinerant golfing streak will find a membership in Founders International’s Prime Honor’s program a way to play a different course every day on the cheap.  And for those who prefer the highest quality golf in smaller quantities, Caledonia and True Blue, arguably two of the top five courses among Myrtle Beach’s 90-plus layouts, offer a combined annual membership that will pay for itself in fewer than 30 rounds.

As you will see in our main feature, signs are starting to point to a turnaround in the Pawleys Island real estate market, which is somewhat reflective of the larger Myrtle Beach market.  Selling prices are up for both condos and single-family homes.  The time it takes to sell a home is down and the total number of closed sales was well up, by about 16%.  That is good news for those who bought and sold in 2019, but not such good news for those who might want to move to the area in, say, a couple of years because new listings dropped from 659 in 2018 to 600 last year, creating an inventory shortage for the first time since the early 2000s.  That should encourage new construction, but a shortage in labor and escalating infrastructure and material costs have driven the cost to build per square foot from around $125 three years ago to $160 today. 

Pawleys Plantation, one of the courses owned by the Chinese firm mentioned above, is another example of how golf courses responded to the changes in the market.  When my wife and I bought our condo there in 2000, the developer offered to pay $7,500, half the initiation fee for golf club membership in the semi-private club.  Last year, Pawleys Plantation Golf & Country Club reduced its initiation fee from $15,000 to $2,500 – about 20 years too late for me.

Who knows what the next decade will bring?  In any event, Happy New Decade to all.

 

New Web Site Coming Soon

Psst.  Don’t tell my wife but I will be starting another golf related web site soon.  Okay, she knows and has given me her blessing — well, sort of.  In any case, I had hoped to have the web site ready by the end of the year, but it will be a nice way to start the decade.  It is called Off The Beaten Cart Path, and as soon as it is launched — in a few weeks, I expect — I will send out a note with the link to the site.

Below are a few photos of some of the courses we will review in the first month or two.  We invite anyone with a favorite off the beaten path course to share their thoughts about layout, condition and other aspects.  We will be pleased to post them for all our readers to see.

 

Plantation Course at Edisto Island

Keney Park Golf Club, Hartford, CT

Berkleigh Golf Club, Kutztown, PA

 

A Great Source for Market Trends

I have been reading Bowden’s Market Barometer for nearly a decade, and I have “stolen” from it often, but always with the permission of Managing Editor Judith She′.  It is a treasure trove of real estate and golf market information that, on the face of it, appears to be for industry professionals but includes much to inform those of us searching for a home, especially in the warm-weather Sun Belt.    

For example, the latest issue includes a range of predictions from reliable sources about the nation’s economy and the housing market in general, along with Ralph Bowden’s analysis of the analyses.  As a market consultant, Mr. Bowden has spent decades helping professionals understand the changing landscapes of the retail and golf markets.  He served previously as an official with the respected Urban Land Institute.  

If a couple is contemplating a move in the next year or three, the information in the Market Barometer is fundamental to understanding how a big investment in real estate will fit the larger picture.  The newsletter sums up all the professionally generated data in the latest issue, some of it conflicting, in this way: “We believe that 2020 has the potential to be the best year for new housing adaptation and innovation in a decade. Affordability is a top-of-mind trend that has the propensity to alter the landscape significantly by encouraging builders and architects to think outside the box.”

“Affordable” is a word we all factor into our big-purchase decisions, no matter what we can afford.  If you would like to follow the affordability trend and the other significant market trends and golf-market related news as you consider your next big move, Bowden’s Market Barometer has a special offer for Home On The Course subscribers – a three-issue complimentary subscription (the newsletter is published bi-monthly).  Write to Judith She′ at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 

After that, you can make the (wise) decision to subscribe at a deep discount to the rate Bowden’s offers at its web site.   www.bowdensmarketbarometer.com  Just mention Home On The Course and you will receive the special subscription offer.

 

 


If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


A Decade Ends, Another Begins, and 
Changes Abound for Golf Communities

 

I made my first foray into golf community research and reviews 15 years ago.  At the time, I knew a bit about golf, from the player’s side, and nothing about real estate.  A decade and a half later, I know a little more about both, with most of my instruction having come from country club pros and real estate people I have met, and from clients who have trusted me to help them find a golf home and showed me what’s important to them, and what is not.

As we start a new decade, there are some things we can be sure of about golf and real estate.  And then there is the stuff of pure speculation, although I prefer to call it intuition.  The following is a little bit of both.

The Migration South Continues

“If you build it, Ray, people will definitely come.” That line, from the 1989 movie Field of Dreams, sums up the relationship between baby boomers and amenities-loaded planned communities in the Southeast.  After licking their wounds for a few years after the Great Recession, developers started building retiree-friendly communities again in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida and other areas of the region, although not fast enough to accommodate all of those retiring baby boomers (see below).  Developers can read data as well as the next person; relatively few new communities include golf courses since, in the last decade, more golfers left the sport than joined (and the mainstream media made a big deal of that).  

“You need between 1,200 and 2,000 homes on site to make a private golf course financially viable,” veteran developer and golf community consultant Ken Kirkman told me recently, adding that estimate applies to a residential golf club with few if any outside memberships.  Large plots of land suitable for such large communities have become a rarer commodity in the Southeast, and developers are inclined to take a more modest approach to investment.

But people continue to head south, especially to the Carolinas and Florida, and with the back end of the baby boomer generation not ready to retire for at least another 10 years, the perquisites of a warm climate, lower taxes, and more stress-free environments will continue their magnetic pull.  

The Future of Golf 

According to a Statista.com study, almost 24 million Americans played golf at least a few times last year.  That figure reversed the course of the prior 10 years which saw a drop from 29.5 million golfers to just under 24 million in 2017.  (The National Golf Foundation says another 9 million participated in off-the-course golf activities in 2018, such as watching golf on TV and playing at such entertainment venues as Top Golf.)  The best news of all: 2.6 million new golfers joined the rest of us in 2018, the most ever in a single year, topping the next largest addition of 2.4 million in 2000 when Tiger Woods was at the height of his popularity.  The upshot is that reports of the death of golf have been exaggerated.

This is good news for all businesses that depend on golf for survival and growth, none more so than golf communities, which rely on their country clubs to attract people to purchase the adjacent homes.  Real estate agencies trying to sell to incoming baby boomers should take heart that the number of older golfers increased in 2018 by 17%, to a total of 4.2 million.  And folks over the age of 65 played an average of 36 rounds annually.

Inventory, Pricing Puts Pressure on Retiree Expectations

As the popularity of golf begins a modest rebound, we will see new pressures on prices retirees will have to pay to live in Southeast Region golf communities.  That is because inventories of current homes for sale in many golf communities are at their lowest levels in years.  A sellers’ market puts upward pressure on prices, and new construction has not yet been able to fill the need.  In fact, prices for construction materials have risen in recent years (except for lumber), as have the costs of labor, especially because the market for construction labor is tight.

“At Landfall,” said Ken Kirkman, who developed the New Bern, NC, community Carolina Colours and has had a longtime relationship with Wilmington, NC's Landfall, “about 6% of all homes are typically for sale at any given time.  Right now, there are just 54 homes on the market of the total 2,000 homes at Landfall.

“That is 50% less than is typical.”

Ken told me that one big challenge to new construction is the rather unpublicized costs of infrastructure, such as roads and water and sewer pipes.

“Infrastructure costs have gone nuts,” he said.  “It takes about $40,000 for us at Carolina Colours to prepare a half-acre lot, and that doesn’t include the cost of the lot itself.”  He added that the infrastructure cost 10 years ago was about $18,000 per lot.

Cathy Bergeron, our real estate agent in Pawleys Island, SC, recently wrote that the local market outlook for 2020 is “less inventory and values [of homes] rising…” In 2018, the median price of homes in the Pawleys Island market rose 6.41%.  She added the following advice: “Now is a good time [to sell]. There is less competition in the selling market, and if [you are] purchasing, prices are not going lower.”

Nationally, home price increases have averaged a little over 5% in the last two years.  Put simply, a couple that waits a year to buy a $300,000 house may see the price rise to $315,000 in 2021.  In two years, if the trend continues, that same home will be listed above $330,000. Making matters potentially worse for baby boomers is what real estate site Zillow refers to as the “Silver Tsunami” of retirees selling their homes and moving to warmer climates.  If developers don’t speed up the building of new homes and new communities, the inventory situation in the South may become even tighter.  (I have this notion that such a situation may spur multiple couples to jointly purchase properties and live together, somewhat mimicking the communes of their youth in the ‘60s.)  But if the costs to build new homes continue to jump, retirees will face the reality of accepting smaller homes with fewer bells and whistles in them. 

In places like Pawleys Island, one way around the current tight market is to buy a lot and build your own home.  Although condo and single-family home prices are up impressively year over year, property sales have languished.  I know this personally as I have listed a property on the 16th fairway of the Jack Nicklaus layout at Pawleys Plantation at 40% below the price I paid for it in 2008, about “15 minutes before the Great Recession started”; that’s my gallows humor line when anyone asks me about it.  Patio lots (1/4 acre) in Pawleys Plantation are listed for well under $100,000; with construction costs running at about $160 per square foot, a new home might cost around $400,000 all in a mature, well landscaped and gated community with one of the best golf courses in the Myrtle Beach area.  (Insider news:  The owners of the golf course just announced to members that the course will be updated in 2021 by the Jack Nicklaus Group.)

Dos for Your Golf Home Search…

For those planning to retire and relocate in 2021 or to find a vacation home with plenty of opportunities to play golf, my advice is “go fast but not furious.”  Do decide on the area where you want to live, without compromising your absolute requirements.  For example, if you have medical concerns, make sure you choose a place with at least one good hospital nearby (good hospitals attract good doctors to the area).  If you plan to travel often, do choose a community with a good regional airport within an hour.  Do identify a near-urban golf community if you expect to miss the theaters, museums, and wide choice of excellent restaurants you were used to near your previous home.  Have a real estate budget in mind, but be flexible with how you allocate it.  It makes no sense to spend, say, your total $400,000 budget on a golf community home if the initiation fee at the community’s private country club is another $25,000.  Buy a $375,000 home instead; you don’t want to stand in the backyard of your dream home looking out at all the golfers playing the course you could not afford.

Ken Kirkman offers a creative idea for those contemplating a move in the next few years but worried about rising costs.

“If I were going to retire in the next three years,” he told me, “I would buy a resale home now, especially given the low current interest rates, and rent it out until I was ready to occupy it.”    

…and Don’ts

Don’t even think about searching for homes online before you narrow down your search to an area and one to three golf communities in that area.  It makes no sense to fall in love with a house online if the golf community ultimately does not pass muster.  Even in current low-inventory markets, you will find plenty of choices for a home that suits you and is in your price range.  The first task is to find a location near the services you need in a community that satisfies most, if not all, of your requirements.

In an area with a range of communities, don’t limit yourself when it comes to choosing a real estate professional.  Some communities, especially the newer ones, maintain on-site agencies whose representatives are extremely knowledgeable about their communities but can only show you properties in that community.  That is fine if you have narrowed your search to just that one community.  But an “independent” Realtor can tour you through all local communities and show you any house or property you want to see.  

And, finally, don’t obsess about whether the people in your new community will like you or whether you will fit in.  If you are likable, you will be embraced. 

 

The Southeast Rises Again…
in Population Growth

United Van Lines recently published its annual report on relocations between states, and the pattern remains pretty much the same as in recent years — people continue to leave colder, industrial states of the north and move to warmer climates across the southern U.S.  There a few blips in the pattern, however, with Idaho becoming the #1 state in terms of percentage of incoming residents compared with outgoing residents, Oregon #2 and the state of Washington at #5.  (Vermont would have been #1 if it weren’t for a 250-moves minimum in the study in order to be counted in the top 10.)  These states all have strong libertarian strains, and the net in-flows could be a reaction to the nation’s current political climate.  Other theories from more savvy sociologists than I are welcome.  We should note that, compared with relocations to states such as Florida and Arizona, Idaho and the other top states show smaller overall numbers of migrators. 

All other net migration figures are pretty much in line with the last couple of decades.  Arizona weighs in at #3 and South Carolina #4.  Florida rejoins the top 10 at #7, and North Carolina is #9.  At the other end of the spectrum, New Jersey saw the most net outflows followed, in order, by Illinois, New York and Connecticut.

On the face of it, the continuing migration south is good news for the warmer states, given the net additions to their tax rolls (no-income-tax states like Florida and Alabama rely on sales and other taxes).  Greater populations mean the many companies that relocate to the southern states will find viable employees to hire.  And because many of those making the move south are retirees, charitable organizations will find an ever-growing pool of volunteers with plenty of time on their hands.  (We won’t tackle here the potential for a changing political climate in states to which lifelong northerners are bringing their preferences, but this could make for significant voting changes in the coming years.)

The biggest question is whether local governments are smart and flexible enough to handle the burgeoning populations in terms of road building and other important public services.  Baby boomers, especially those seeking to avoid the traffic, pollution, increasing costs of local services and all the other aspects of life in their former towns, should expand their research parameters, including census predictions, before deciding where to live.  Temperate year-round climates are one reason to relocate, but bad decisions by town fathers and state legislators could certainly leave relocating boomers out in the cold.

You can find the 2019 United Van Lines survey here:  https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study-2019

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


 
January 2020 
True Blue Golf Club, Pawleys Island, SC

Myrtle Beach Defines a Decade

We humans tend to celebrate round numbers.  I write this mere hours after the ball dropped in Times Square in front of tens of thousands of people celebrating a specific cycle of 365 days.  The newspapers and magazines are filled with stories about highlights — and a few lowlights — of a decade that ended at midnight and a new one that started just after.

In reality, a decade can start and end anywhere you want it to, as long as it comprises 10 years exactly.  In terms of the life span of golf communities, I would argue that the previous decade ended — and a new one began — with the 2008 recession, which threw the entire real estate market into chaos, caused some golf communities to close and others to change in fundamental and long lasting ways.  That decade from 2008 to 2018 was one of restoration, as golf communities could no longer count on an endless supply of golf-interested baby boomers and were forced to accommodate a swath of retirees less interested in golf.  Myrtle Beach, the quintessential area for golfing retirees, as well as visiting golfers, suffered as much as any area. The Grand Strand is littered with golf communities whose former fairways and greens are now filled with condos and small single-family homes — assuming they aren’t populated with overgrown grass and tall weeds.  (The latest victim, Indian Wells, is a fine public course I have enjoyed playing over the last few decades.)

Golf lost a few million regular players during that ’08 to ’18 decade, and that meant golf courses that were neither efficiently run nor well-designed faced financial crises.  Myrtle Beach, which is the ultimate symbol of golf-centric areas, became a microcosm of what happens when an economy hits the skids and discretionary income dries up.  Troubled golf courses became easy targets for any group of people with cash.  A few Myrtle Beach golf course operators tacked on local courses, for pennies on the dollar, to their already established operations, creating multi-course memberships for $99 and up. Since Chinese companies in the early 2010s were flush with cash and eager to take advantage of the EB-5 Visa program that offers permanent residency for certain investments in American companies (including golf courses), one Chinese firm purchased 23 of the Myrtle Beach Grand Strand’s most iconic layouts.  Retirees with an itinerant golfing streak will find a membership in Founders International’s Prime Honor’s program a way to play a different course every day on the cheap.  And for those who prefer the highest quality golf in smaller quantities, Caledonia and True Blue, arguably two of the top five courses among Myrtle Beach’s 90-plus layouts, offer a combined annual membership that will pay for itself in fewer than 30 rounds.

As you will see in our main feature, signs are starting to point to a turnaround in the Pawleys Island real estate market, which is somewhat reflective of the larger Myrtle Beach market.  Selling prices are up for both condos and single-family homes.  The time it takes to sell a home is down and the total number of closed sales was well up, by about 16%.  That is good news for those who bought and sold in 2019, but not such good news for those who might want to move to the area in, say, a couple of years because new listings dropped from 659 in 2018 to 600 last year, creating an inventory shortage for the first time since the early 2000s.  That should encourage new construction, but a shortage in labor and escalating infrastructure and material costs have driven the cost to build per square foot from around $125 three years ago to $160 today. 

Pawleys Plantation, one of the courses owned by the Chinese firm mentioned above, is another example of how golf courses responded to the changes in the market.  When my wife and I bought our condo there in 2000, the developer offered to pay $7,500, half the initiation fee for golf club membership in the semi-private club.  Last year, Pawleys Plantation Golf & Country Club reduced its initiation fee from $15,000 to $2,500 – about 20 years too late for me.

Who knows what the next decade will bring?  In any event, Happy New Decade to all.

 

New Web Site Coming Soon

Psst.  Don’t tell my wife but I will be starting another golf related web site soon.  Okay, she knows and has given me her blessing — well, sort of.  In any case, I had hoped to have the web site ready by the end of the year, but it will be a nice way to start the decade.  It is called Off The Beaten Cart Path, and as soon as it is launched — in a few weeks, I expect — I will send out a note with the link to the site.

Below are a few photos of some of the courses we will review in the first month or two.  We invite anyone with a favorite off the beaten path course to share their thoughts about layout, condition and other aspects.  We will be pleased to post them for all our readers to see.

 

Plantation Course at Edisto Island

Keney Park Golf Club, Hartford, CT

Berkleigh Golf Club, Kutztown, PA

 

A Great Source for Market Trends

I have been reading Bowden’s Market Barometer for nearly a decade, and I have “stolen” from it often, but always with the permission of Managing Editor Judith She′.  It is a treasure trove of real estate and golf market information that, on the face of it, appears to be for industry professionals but includes much to inform those of us searching for a home, especially in the warm-weather Sun Belt.    

For example, the latest issue includes a range of predictions from reliable sources about the nation’s economy and the housing market in general, along with Ralph Bowden’s analysis of the analyses.  As a market consultant, Mr. Bowden has spent decades helping professionals understand the changing landscapes of the retail and golf markets.  He served previously as an official with the respected Urban Land Institute.  

If a couple is contemplating a move in the next year or three, the information in the Market Barometer is fundamental to understanding how a big investment in real estate will fit the larger picture.  The newsletter sums up all the professionally generated data in the latest issue, some of it conflicting, in this way: “We believe that 2020 has the potential to be the best year for new housing adaptation and innovation in a decade. Affordability is a top-of-mind trend that has the propensity to alter the landscape significantly by encouraging builders and architects to think outside the box.”

“Affordable” is a word we all factor into our big-purchase decisions, no matter what we can afford.  If you would like to follow the affordability trend and the other significant market trends and golf-market related news as you consider your next big move, Bowden’s Market Barometer has a special offer for Home On The Course subscribers – a three-issue complimentary subscription (the newsletter is published bi-monthly).  Write to Judith She′ at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 

After that, you can make the (wise) decision to subscribe at a deep discount to the rate Bowden’s offers at its web site.   www.bowdensmarketbarometer.com  Just mention Home On The Course and you will receive the special subscription offer.

 

 


If you are considering a search for a permanent or vacation home in a golf-oriented area, please contact me for a free, no-obligation consultation at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


A Decade Ends, Another Begins, and 
Changes Abound for Golf Communities

 

I made my first foray into golf community research and reviews 15 years ago.  At the time, I knew a bit about golf, from the player’s side, and nothing about real estate.  A decade and a half later, I know a little more about both, with most of my instruction having come from country club pros and real estate people I have met, and from clients who have trusted me to help them find a golf home and showed me what’s important to them, and what is not.

As we start a new decade, there are some things we can be sure of about golf and real estate.  And then there is the stuff of pure speculation, although I prefer to call it intuition.  The following is a little bit of both.

The Migration South Continues

“If you build it, Ray, people will definitely come.” That line, from the 1989 movie Field of Dreams, sums up the relationship between baby boomers and amenities-loaded planned communities in the Southeast.  After licking their wounds for a few years after the Great Recession, developers started building retiree-friendly communities again in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida and other areas of the region, although not fast enough to accommodate all of those retiring baby boomers (see below).  Developers can read data as well as the next person; relatively few new communities include golf courses since, in the last decade, more golfers left the sport than joined (and the mainstream media made a big deal of that).  

“You need between 1,200 and 2,000 homes on site to make a private golf course financially viable,” veteran developer and golf community consultant Ken Kirkman told me recently, adding that estimate applies to a residential golf club with few if any outside memberships.  Large plots of land suitable for such large communities have become a rarer commodity in the Southeast, and developers are inclined to take a more modest approach to investment.

But people continue to head south, especially to the Carolinas and Florida, and with the back end of the baby boomer generation not ready to retire for at least another 10 years, the perquisites of a warm climate, lower taxes, and more stress-free environments will continue their magnetic pull.  

The Future of Golf 

According to a Statista.com study, almost 24 million Americans played golf at least a few times last year.  That figure reversed the course of the prior 10 years which saw a drop from 29.5 million golfers to just under 24 million in 2017.  (The National Golf Foundation says another 9 million participated in off-the-course golf activities in 2018, such as watching golf on TV and playing at such entertainment venues as Top Golf.)  The best news of all: 2.6 million new golfers joined the rest of us in 2018, the most ever in a single year, topping the next largest addition of 2.4 million in 2000 when Tiger Woods was at the height of his popularity.  The upshot is that reports of the death of golf have been exaggerated.

This is good news for all businesses that depend on golf for survival and growth, none more so than golf communities, which rely on their country clubs to attract people to purchase the adjacent homes.  Real estate agencies trying to sell to incoming baby boomers should take heart that the number of older golfers increased in 2018 by 17%, to a total of 4.2 million.  And folks over the age of 65 played an average of 36 rounds annually.

Inventory, Pricing Puts Pressure on Retiree Expectations

As the popularity of golf begins a modest rebound, we will see new pressures on prices retirees will have to pay to live in Southeast Region golf communities.  That is because inventories of current homes for sale in many golf communities are at their lowest levels in years.  A sellers’ market puts upward pressure on prices, and new construction has not yet been able to fill the need.  In fact, prices for construction materials have risen in recent years (except for lumber), as have the costs of labor, especially because the market for construction labor is tight.

“At Landfall,” said Ken Kirkman, who developed the New Bern, NC, community Carolina Colours and has had a longtime relationship with Wilmington, NC's Landfall, “about 6% of all homes are typically for sale at any given time.  Right now, there are just 54 homes on the market of the total 2,000 homes at Landfall.

“That is 50% less than is typical.”

Ken told me that one big challenge to new construction is the rather unpublicized costs of infrastructure, such as roads and water and sewer pipes.

“Infrastructure costs have gone nuts,” he said.  “It takes about $40,000 for us at Carolina Colours to prepare a half-acre lot, and that doesn’t include the cost of the lot itself.”  He added that the infrastructure cost 10 years ago was about $18,000 per lot.

Cathy Bergeron, our real estate agent in Pawleys Island, SC, recently wrote that the local market outlook for 2020 is “less inventory and values [of homes] rising…” In 2018, the median price of homes in the Pawleys Island market rose 6.41%.  She added the following advice: “Now is a good time [to sell]. There is less competition in the selling market, and if [you are] purchasing, prices are not going lower.”

Nationally, home price increases have averaged a little over 5% in the last two years.  Put simply, a couple that waits a year to buy a $300,000 house may see the price rise to $315,000 in 2021.  In two years, if the trend continues, that same home will be listed above $330,000. Making matters potentially worse for baby boomers is what real estate site Zillow refers to as the “Silver Tsunami” of retirees selling their homes and moving to warmer climates.  If developers don’t speed up the building of new homes and new communities, the inventory situation in the South may become even tighter.  (I have this notion that such a situation may spur multiple couples to jointly purchase properties and live together, somewhat mimicking the communes of their youth in the ‘60s.)  But if the costs to build new homes continue to jump, retirees will face the reality of accepting smaller homes with fewer bells and whistles in them. 

In places like Pawleys Island, one way around the current tight market is to buy a lot and build your own home.  Although condo and single-family home prices are up impressively year over year, property sales have languished.  I know this personally as I have listed a property on the 16th fairway of the Jack Nicklaus layout at Pawleys Plantation at 40% below the price I paid for it in 2008, about “15 minutes before the Great Recession started”; that’s my gallows humor line when anyone asks me about it.  Patio lots (1/4 acre) in Pawleys Plantation are listed for well under $100,000; with construction costs running at about $160 per square foot, a new home might cost around $400,000 all in a mature, well landscaped and gated community with one of the best golf courses in the Myrtle Beach area.  (Insider news:  The owners of the golf course just announced to members that the course will be updated in 2021 by the Jack Nicklaus Group.)

Dos for Your Golf Home Search…

For those planning to retire and relocate in 2021 or to find a vacation home with plenty of opportunities to play golf, my advice is “go fast but not furious.”  Do decide on the area where you want to live, without compromising your absolute requirements.  For example, if you have medical concerns, make sure you choose a place with at least one good hospital nearby (good hospitals attract good doctors to the area).  If you plan to travel often, do choose a community with a good regional airport within an hour.  Do identify a near-urban golf community if you expect to miss the theaters, museums, and wide choice of excellent restaurants you were used to near your previous home.  Have a real estate budget in mind, but be flexible with how you allocate it.  It makes no sense to spend, say, your total $400,000 budget on a golf community home if the initiation fee at the community’s private country club is another $25,000.  Buy a $375,000 home instead; you don’t want to stand in the backyard of your dream home looking out at all the golfers playing the course you could not afford.

Ken Kirkman offers a creative idea for those contemplating a move in the next few years but worried about rising costs.

“If I were going to retire in the next three years,” he told me, “I would buy a resale home now, especially given the low current interest rates, and rent it out until I was ready to occupy it.”    

…and Don’ts

Don’t even think about searching for homes online before you narrow down your search to an area and one to three golf communities in that area.  It makes no sense to fall in love with a house online if the golf community ultimately does not pass muster.  Even in current low-inventory markets, you will find plenty of choices for a home that suits you and is in your price range.  The first task is to find a location near the services you need in a community that satisfies most, if not all, of your requirements.

In an area with a range of communities, don’t limit yourself when it comes to choosing a real estate professional.  Some communities, especially the newer ones, maintain on-site agencies whose representatives are extremely knowledgeable about their communities but can only show you properties in that community.  That is fine if you have narrowed your search to just that one community.  But an “independent” Realtor can tour you through all local communities and show you any house or property you want to see.  

And, finally, don’t obsess about whether the people in your new community will like you or whether you will fit in.  If you are likable, you will be embraced. 

 

The Southeast Rises Again…
in Population Growth

United Van Lines recently published its annual report on relocations between states, and the pattern remains pretty much the same as in recent years — people continue to leave colder, industrial states of the north and move to warmer climates across the southern U.S.  There a few blips in the pattern, however, with Idaho becoming the #1 state in terms of percentage of incoming residents compared with outgoing residents, Oregon #2 and the state of Washington at #5.  (Vermont would have been #1 if it weren’t for a 250-moves minimum in the study in order to be counted in the top 10.)  These states all have strong libertarian strains, and the net in-flows could be a reaction to the nation’s current political climate.  Other theories from more savvy sociologists than I are welcome.  We should note that, compared with relocations to states such as Florida and Arizona, Idaho and the other top states show smaller overall numbers of migrators. 

All other net migration figures are pretty much in line with the last couple of decades.  Arizona weighs in at #3 and South Carolina #4.  Florida rejoins the top 10 at #7, and North Carolina is #9.  At the other end of the spectrum, New Jersey saw the most net outflows followed, in order, by Illinois, New York and Connecticut.

On the face of it, the continuing migration south is good news for the warmer states, given the net additions to their tax rolls (no-income-tax states like Florida and Alabama rely on sales and other taxes).  Greater populations mean the many companies that relocate to the southern states will find viable employees to hire.  And because many of those making the move south are retirees, charitable organizations will find an ever-growing pool of volunteers with plenty of time on their hands.  (We won’t tackle here the potential for a changing political climate in states to which lifelong northerners are bringing their preferences, but this could make for significant voting changes in the coming years.)

The biggest question is whether local governments are smart and flexible enough to handle the burgeoning populations in terms of road building and other important public services.  Baby boomers, especially those seeking to avoid the traffic, pollution, increasing costs of local services and all the other aspects of life in their former towns, should expand their research parameters, including census predictions, before deciding where to live.  Temperate year-round climates are one reason to relocate, but bad decisions by town fathers and state legislators could certainly leave relocating boomers out in the cold.

You can find the 2019 United Van Lines survey here:  https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study-2019

 

Larry Gavrich
Founder & Editor
Home On The Course, LLC

 

 

Read my Blog | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


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