A map in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal depicting “senior migration” provides a stark reminder that baby boomers are moving south, predicting rises in real estate prices below the Mason-Dixon line and softening of real estate values in areas like New England and the upper Midwest. Those on the cusp of retirement and thinking about relocation to a warmer climate will find they have plenty of company. And if supply of homes can’t keep up with demand, there could be the potential for boomers bidding for the choicest properties in the most popular areas.
Yes, I know, I am in the business of helping baby boomers (and others) find properties for vacation and retirement in southern golf communities; therefore, I can be accused of having an interest in encouraging folks to move sooner rather than later. Guilty, as charged. But the numbers don’t lie, and according to the WSJ’s map, the net migration into the Carolinas each year between 2009 and 2012 has been more than 10,000, and into Florida more than 50,000. (And you thought Florida was dead.) All other southeastern states except for Virginia saw net in-flows of seniors (aged 55 and older) whereas Delaware, Vermont and New Hampshire saw tiny increases (about 500 annually) of the same population.
If the economy continues to improve, we expect retirees to be incrementally younger, at least those whose IRAs and 401Ks are robust and whose primary homes are older than, say, 15 years, meaning they probably have a good slug of equity coming when they sell. This group will be looking for ever more active lifestyles in retirement, which means that golf as an activity –- which has been written off by many -– could experience a renaissance of sorts, pushing prices up in those golf communities with the highest-perceived values. Most such communities are still reeling from the recession and gun shy about spending on advertising. Upscale golf communities like Reynolds Plantation in Greensboro, GA, and The Cliffs Communities in the mountains of the Carolinas have kept their powder dry since the recession began. And yet, they both offer amenities to beat the band that are expensive to maintain; the only way to pay for them is with new residents and club members, and that means they must at least sell an increasing number of lots, if not homes. One wonders what they are waiting for, in terms of marketing.
Access the WSJ map of 55+ migration by clicking here. You will need to click on the second and third little dots below the article to see the map and a related graph.