The tax plan that Congress is set to approve today or tomorrow will accelerate the already robust migration from North to South. Whereas in the last century, people moved in the other direction for job opportunities and to escape institutionalized discrimination, this latest migration will be all about economic security. Whether you are for or against the plan, one thing that is undeniable is that many residents of the so-called Blue states like New York and New Jersey will lose a higher percentage of their income to property and state taxes than they are currently losing.  The new law caps at $10,000 the deduction for property taxes and state income taxes combined.  Once you hit, say, the $10,000 mark in property taxes, you will get no deduction on your state income taxes.  Those living in the South, who are already paying much lower property taxes than their counterparts in the North, will not be affected because rarely are taxes on homes in the Carolinas and Georgia, for example, taxed in excess of the $10,000 threshold baked in the bill.  And our friends in the South generally pay lower state income taxes, if any at all (none in Florida, Alabama and, in some circumstances, Tennessee).

This home for sale in Savannah Lakes Village in McCormick, SC, overlooks the 4th tee box of one of the two excellent courses in the community. At 2,248 square feet and a price of just $209,000, cost of the 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is just $93 per square foot.  Annual property taxes on the home are just $1,400, $1,100 if one of the owners is 65 or older as South Carolina offers a "homestead" exemption to seniors.  Contact me if you would like more info on the home and on Savannah Lakes.  (Although Michael Sherard, the agent with the listing, tells me he received an offer on the house as I was writing this article.)

        Take comparable homes in, say, my hometown of Avon, CT, and Pawleys Island, SC, where I maintain a vacation condo. A $600,000 home currently listed for sale in Avon carries a property tax burden of $12,000. Owners of a home in Pawleys Plantation, just down the street from our condo and listed for sale at $599,900, paid just under $3,000 in property taxes last year.  Now that may not appear overly consequential for the Avon homeowner, the difference between the $10,000 exclusion and the $12,000 in property tax.  But what about the state income tax?  The Connecticut homeowner will be on the hook for all of that because they will have used up the $10,000 exclusion on property taxes (or, if they used it up on the state income tax deduction, they will receive no deduction for their property taxes). 
        Much of the migration to date is courtesy of baby boomers retiring to the Sunbelt for lifestyle and climate reasons, as well as to reduce their cost of living. The coming wave will be more mixed, with working individuals seeking new job opportunities and a less tax-burdened lifestyle, and baby boomers, whose 401K and IRA plans have been over the moon in recent years. They will continue to seek an active and warmer lifestyle and to preserve financial resources in their post-working years.
        Most readings of the tax bill show a huge advantage overall for the wealthiest individuals.  But not so fast, especially for those persons with a high-balance mortgage on a $1 million or greater home.  They no longer get to deduct interest on the mortgage amount over $750,000.  But with a move to the South, they could surely find a $750,000 home every bit as deluxe as a $1.25 million home up North, keeping their mortgage, if they require one, within the boundaries of deductibility, according to the proposed law. 
        All this could conspire to drive up the prices of real estate in the South, especially if developers are not quick to build plenty of new homes.  The compulsion to do so is obvious.  In that example of the two homes above, the $600,000 Avon home has 4,380 square feet and 4 bedrooms, 3 baths and 2 half baths. The price comes out to about $137 per square foot. The Pawleys Island home, which spans 6,200 square feet, features 6 bedrooms, 6 baths and 2 half baths and costs out at just $97 per square foot. You may very well not need that much space in your retirement, but that kind of “bargain” is more the rule than exception in many areas of the Sunbelt.  At least it is for now.

        Weather on the golf courses this week in Pawleys Island, SC, reminds me of the climate changes during a June round of golf in St. Andrews. Back in 2009, I endured a little bit of everything on the Old Course; sunshine and 65 degrees on the first tee, dark clouds on the second and third holes, and sleet and heavy wind on the fourth hole before, almost as quickly, the skies and temperatures retreated to first hole conditions.
        Things don’t happen quite as precipitously on the coast of South Carolina, but over the course of four days in early December, I have seen just about the same conditions. I played in brilliant sunshine and temps in the mid 60s on Sunday, similar but more breezy conditions on Tuesday, and uniformly grey skies with imminent rain on Wednesday (but still low 60s temperatures and it only started to rain just as we finished in early afternoon). Today it is rainy and in the low 40s, and I am sitting it out.

Pawleys Plantation signature hole, the 13th, with Pawleys Island beach homes beyond.

        For those contemplating a move to the South Carolina coast, don’t expect to play golf every day in December — or January and February, for that matter. Recalling Christmas week vacations in Pawleys Island with the family for many years, the chances of playing golf in a heavy sweater or ski jacket were as good as playing in shorts and a golf shirt. One year it snowed, just an inch or two but enough to keep almost all the locals off the road, giving the veteran northerners a chance to get into the most popular restaurants in the area without a reservation. Of course, for those dedicated linksters who play through the winter in New England, 44 degrees and a little drizzle will do quite nicely in December. I return to CT on Saturday and they are expecting snow; 44 and rain starts to look a little better.

Caledonia shines again

        Brad Chambers, who publishes ShootingYourAge.com, joined me this week for rounds at both Pawleys Plantation and Caledonia Golf & Fish Club, located about three miles from each other in Pawleys Island. Although Pawleys Plantation features a great layout and, frankly, is the most challenging course on the Grand Strand, in my humble opinion, the club apparently had a litte trouble with grass growth on the greens earlier this fall. They are coming back, but Brad and I agreed that rarely had we putted greens before where reading the grain was absolutely fundamental to getting any putts close to the hole. That wasn’t a problem the next day at Caledonia where the greens were, as always, fast and firm without any grain to speak of. Caledonia is a tough course to play the first time, given that many of the forced carry approaches demand drives on the proper side of the fairways. But after a round or two, the best pathways to Mike Strantz’ enormous and wavy greens — some look like green tsunamis — become more obvious and a good score is possible. As always, the folks at Caledonia, from the bag drop to the pro shop to the friendly wait staff in the don’t-miss restaurant, took exceptional care of us. It is small wonder that Caledonia is typically ranked as the best golf experience of the 100+ golf courses on the Grand Strand.

Caledonia Golf & Fish Club

Dining adventures south of Myrtle Beach

        As mentioned above, the dining room at Caledonia Golf & Fish Club is not to be missed by anyone visiting the Pawleys Island area. For those who believe “you can’t eat atmosphere,” Caledonia may change your mind. A seat on the back porch, for example, where there are about a half dozen tables, looks out to miles of marshland, turned a golden color at this time of the year and a beautiful shade of green during the warmer weather. I had told Brad of the sight of boats on the Waccamaw River about a mile in the distance and, sure enough, as if on cue, one did just that, its white mast poking above the top of the field of gold. It’s only lunch, but the Caledonia kitchen behaves as if it is cooking for royalty, lavishing so much care on what is normally a simple, greasy patty melt sandwich that I found myself smacking my lips. And yet as good as my sandwich was, I looked longingly at Brad’s club sandwich for which one whole turkey breast must have been sacrificed. By the way, if you are given a choice of sides the first time you have lunch at Caledonia, opt for the house made potato chips; Brad ordered the french fries, also terrific, and I let him try one of my potato chips — but just one.
        The acknowledged best restaurant in Pawleys Island is Frank’s, and I didn’t want Brad, who lives four hours away from Pawleys, to miss out on a meal there. He wasn’t disappointed, and I certainly wasn’t either. The “Duck Two Ways” I had was the best preparation of duck I have had either way in decades, the confit moist and perfectly seasoned but not tasting of any of the fat it was cooked in, the breast exquisitely cooked into medium rare disks both firm and soft, as difficult to prepare and crazy good as that sounds.
        Many year’s ago at a conference in New York, I sat next to a professor from the University of South Carolina. When she learned I vacationed in Pawleys Island, she said she and a colleague drove the four hours roundtrip to/from Pawleys a few times a year to eat at a special restaurant there. “Don’t tell me,” I said. “Frank’s, right?” In dining as well as golf, long drives are rewarded.

The porch off the Caledonia restaurant almost hangs over the 18th green.

One final note about food in the Pawleys Island area

        I don’t know where to go for data on supermarkets per capita, but if I did find a source, I feel confident that Pawleys Island might have the most per capita in the nation. If you like to cook, there may be no better place to live and play golf. Take, for example, Pawleys Plantation, where I own a vacation condo. Less than one mile from our gate is a large Loews supermarket. Across the street from Loews is a Food Lion, and less than a mile north of Food Lion is a gigantic Publix supermarket, just a few years old. For those who favor more gourmet provisions, Fresh Market, a competitor of Whole Foods, is another 1 1/2 miles up Highway 17. That amounts to four supermarkets within about three miles of Pawleys Plantation.
        Of course, on the coast, you should have access to fresh seafood. During the spring and fall, local fishermen set up their refrigerated trucks in a few parking lots on Highway 17 and sell freshly netted shrimp at discount prices. They don’t operate in December, but this morning I drove just eight miles to the docks along the inlet in Georgetown and picked up a pound of humongous shrimp for just $8.99. The town fathers don’t tout Pawleys Island as a foodie destination, but they probably should.