My own two eyes and ears corroborate what a recent analysis by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University indicates; that after decades of declining interstate migration rates in the U.S., millennials and baby boomer relocation from one state to another have increased since the Great Recession.
        I write this from Pawleys Island, SC, where I am staying in a vacation home I have owned since 2000. Our condo was new at the time, and for the ensuing few years, developers and individual lot owners built new homes at a very modest rate. New construction and most resale activity dried up just before the Great Recession of 2009 and for the following five years. But now, I am hearing from local Realtors that inventories are low here at Pawleys Plantation and in the wider area, and as I make my way around the Jack Nicklaus golf course, I see at least a half dozen homes under construction. Recently, a local developer bought up the only multi-lot tract of land in Pawleys Plantation and is building a group of about 30 homes beside the 18th fairway, a short walk to the clubhouse and first tee. A couple of them sold in the first week they were offered.

The United Van Lines Migration map for 2017.  For more, click here.

        I am hearing similar stories from real estate professionals I work with across the Southeast and, indeed, I have seen an uptick in recent months in the number of baby boomers asking me for assistance in their searches for golf-oriented homes. All of that confirms the Harvard organization’s data that, among other things, indicates what most of us know intuitively, that folks are moving from North to South to escape the cold winters and the comparatively higher cost of living.

        “Many states with positive in-migration in 2012, such as Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina,” the authors of the study write, “saw even greater in-migration in 2016. In contrast, several states – notably California, New York, and Massachusetts – that had negative flows in 2012 had even greater negative flows in 2016.”
        Other analyses confirm the data. One of our favorites is the annual United Van Lines Migration  tudy that charts actual movements from one state to another, which shows significant movement from the Midwest and Northeast to the Southeast and selected states outside the region (Vermont, among others in the Pacific Northwest). 
        If you have been considering a move to the Southeast, especially the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida, waiting much longer could become expensive. Even if you are not ready to take the plunge on a single-family home, the purchase of a vacation home now could put you in line for some appreciation that will set the stage for an upgrade later on. Of course, national economic factors could change things but, as it looks right now, the time may be right for a purchase.
        Thanks to our friend Keith Spivey for alerting us to the Joint Center report.
The model home of 30 new ones to be built along the 18th fairway at Pawleys Plantation in Pawleys Island, SC.

        The sign that greets golfers at the back edge of the 1st tee at Pawleys Plantation in Pawleys Island, SC, does not bear a skull and crossbones. Nevertheless, it quietly screams, “Ignore the distances and play the tee boxes appropriate to your true handicap.” But even that cautionary sign underplays the difficulty of the golf course, especially for those of us who no longer drive the ball much more ten 200 yards off the tee.
        Up until I reached the age of about 60, I played the blue tees at Pawleys, at a total distance of 6,549 yards. I carried about a 10 handicap and, according to the course rating of 73.7 from the “Heron” tees, as they are called, I should have threatened a score of 80 or less nearly half the time.
        I didn’t; indeed, I hardly shot below 80 10% of the rounds I played. When I became Medicare eligible, I gave up my false notions of masculinity and moved to the white tees, with a total yardage of 6,184. The length of my best drives had dropped to around 220 yards, making the approaches to many of the greens when I played the Heron tees a choice between 3 hybrid and 3 wood. That was not much fun. When you look at the scorecard, you understand that a 10-handicap golfer might also be biting off more than he can chew from the white tees; the rating is a solid 72.0 but the Slope is 139 which, in practical terms, means the golfer will pay dearly for any balls hit off line.
The sign at the first tee at Pawleys Plantation Golf Club implies that choosing the wrong tees could make for a miserable day of golf. But Pawleys is a course where length off the tee is important, and an aging golfer who carries a low double-digit handicap but can't drive a ball much more than 200 yards will find the forced carries to many greens daunting. My advice, based on experience:  Move up one tee box.
        As I approach my 70th birthday in a couple of weeks, I’ve decided to move up to the “Senior” tees at 5,560 yards, a decision that was the toughest of all for me since some of these “yellow” tee boxes are set just behind the Ladies tees. (I hope that doesn’t sound chauvinist; I don’t mean it to.) The decision was hastened by the need to get in some practice rounds from the yellow tee boxes for the upcoming club senior championship, which I am playing for the first time. Still, the total distance from the yellows is longer than the card indicates because of the forced carries over water and bunkers on this particular Jack Nicklaus golf course. As you will note from the photo, Pawleys Plantation recommends a handicap from 19 to 28 for the yellow, or “Finch” tees. That is way off the mark for aging golfers who cannot hit the ball as far as they once did.
        Those “Senior” tee boxes carry a rating of just 69.2 but a slope of 132, still significantly higher than many of the public and muni courses many of us play regularly. The layout from up closer also adds some idiosyncrasies like big trees in the line of your drives that don’t come into play from the tees farther back and have forced me to keep driver in my bag on some 350 to 360 yard holes. And the shorter distances still do not eliminate the need for forced carries over water and sand –- in some cases, both –- to reach the putting surfaces on many of the Nicklaus holes. 
        In effect, a few of the holes from the yellow tees carry more risk than do those from the white tees. I know that from the experience of just a few rounds; from the senior tees, I haven’t broken 85 yet, still carrying my 10-handicap. But I have improved each round, and I am salivating at the prospect of having a really good round on a tough course from just 5,500 yards. 
        And that will keep me coming back for more.
        Note:  Our friend Brad Chambers, at ShootingYourAge.com, started a similar discussion recently about when to move to the senior tees.  Check it out by clicking here.