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Drilling down: Housing market data best at micro level

Thursday, 14 August 2008

My local paper, the Hartford Courant, runs a section a few times a week called "Homing In: The Housing Market in Your Part of Town." It displays quarterly sales and price data for homes in Connecticut, by zip code, across the 72 towns in the state. At 10 zip codes per week, it takes a few months to run through all of

The most meaningful housing data is by neighborhood.

them, but at the Courant's web site, you can retrieve data for any zip code in Connecticut. Displayed in this way, the table reveals the brutal truth that anyone looking for a home should not focus on the data by town, but rather by zip code; if your real estate agent can provide meaningful data down to the neighborhood level, that is better yet.
   Today's listing in the Courant is a reminder that the housing market is local and that national, regional, statewide or even town data are misleading, as well as scary, in the current market. I say "scary" because the macro data is much more depressing than some of the local data.
    In West Hartford, for example, a popular town with an excellent tax base and convenient services, housing market data across the four zip codes are all over the place. Median prices are down year to year in three of the zips - by as much as 7.3% - but they are up 1.7% in zip code 06110. The median prices of condos are up in three of the zips - not the same three as above - and down 22% in the other. And over the past year, foreclosures are down in one zip code, level in another, and up in the other two, in one case a staggering 117% (a total number of 13 foreclosures, not inconsequential for one zip code).
    Such inconsistent data can be confusing, and if I were moving to West Hartford, or any other town for

Are lower prices an opportunity or a signal that the neighborhood is getting worse?

which there is such data by zip code, I'd be hard pressed to decide whether a lower price trend, for example, was good or bad for me as a buyer. Do I go for the bargain in a neighborhood whose real estate prices could continue to drop after I move in or, worse, one whose fortunes may be turning down? Or do I pay more (relatively speaking) and go for stability in the zip code in which prices have held up, ostensibly because it is the most stable place to live in town?
What role do foreclosure numbers play? In West Hartford, the zip code with a 117% increase in foreclosures saw only a modest decrease in sale prices (down 1.3%). In the zip code in which prices softened the most, 06107, the foreclosure rate dropped the most as well, and the median price of condos in that zip code increased by 158%. (Note: Some new, upscale condos skew the numbers, but if the developers can get those kinds of prices in this market, it implies something positive about that zip code's attractiveness.)
It is all quite confusing, but the bottom line here is that it is better to have information than not. And the best information is the most local.

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Test drives: Southeast developer offers golfers opportunity to be Member for a Day

Wednesday, 13 August 2008

If there is anything wrong with the links-style layout at North Hampton Golf Club, it is that homes are often in view just off the fairways, although rarely near the field of play.

   These are perilous times for big national developers whipsawed by the housing crisis, and they are pulling out all the stops to reduce their inflated inventories. Virtually all of the name developers, as well as smaller ones, are pricing their homes aggressively and offering other attractive incentives. But given the beating that real estate investors have taken, no one is going to buy a home without visiting their future property at least once. So developers are not only sharpening their price reduction pencils but they are also concentrating on more creative ways to attract potential buyers to make that visit.
    One of the most prominent developers in the southeast, LandMar, is making a special appeal to golfers in that regard, offering a Member for a Day plan for those looking for a vacation or permanent golf home in the southeastern U.S. The Member for a Day (or Stay and Play package at some of their developments) offers all the privileges of club membership to the non-member who is willing to be shown around a LandMar golf community for a few hours.
    Florida-based LandMar's roster of developments is impressive, spanning Florida and Georgia and including communities with highly regarded golf courses like North Hampton in Fernandina Beach, FL, and Osprey Cove

Sales tours of communities do not take more than a couple of hours and the sales people are generally open and honest with answers to your questions.

in St. Marys, GA. The Arnold Palmer-designed North Hampton recently showed up as the 45th best course in the nation, private or public, on a list at GolfLink.com (see the article immediately below). More significantly, LandMar has a "strategic alliance" with Crescent Communities and Hampton Golf which gives residents of a LandMar community reciprocal golf privileges at eight other LandMar courses, many within driving distance, as well as the more far flung Crescent courses, which include the well-regarded Rim Golf Club in Payson, AZ (Weiskopf/Morrish design), and Sugarloaf in Duluth, GA (Coore/Crenshaw design).
The LandMar Member for a Day package includes a round of golf per person, the required community tour with a member of the sales staff, and access to all the facilities. In truth, though, North Hampton is available to the public for play, so if you wanted to avoid the community tour, you could pay a little more and test the golf course before you take the tour (green fees are incredibly reasonable for this quality of golf, around $60 on a weekday, cart included). My experience with these tours is that they are not hard sell, they do not take more than a couple of hours, and the sales people are generally open and honest with answers to your questions.
North Hampton still has a few home sites available at prices beginning in the low $100s and some built homes starting in the $400s. Amelia Island and its beaches (and resort golf courses) are just a few minutes away, and the increasingly popular city of Jacksonville about 20 minutes away. If you are considering a slightly more rural golf community, LandMar's Osprey Cove, about 40 minutes north of North Hampton and near the charming St. Marys, GA, offers not only Member for a Day but also a stay and play package for just $99 per night that includes golf on its private Mark McCumber course. I've visited Osprey Cove and liked it, although rain prevented me from playing the golf course. Home site and house prices are lower than at North Hampton but the low country environs, for me, are even better.

I have contacts at both Osprey Cove and North Hampton, as well as other golf communities in the Jacksonville area, so if you are interested, contact me and I will get you more information and put you in touch with the person best able to help you with golf arrangements or a stay and play package.

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Peoples choice: GolfLink list defies logic

Tuesday, 12 August 2008

North Hampton Golf Club in Fernandina Beach, FL, ranked #45 on GolfLink's list of best courses in the U.S., ahead of the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island and Torrey Pines. Golf homes adjacent to the Arnold Palmer course are reasonably priced beginning around $350,000. Above is the par 3 14th hole.

The popular web site GolfLink.com published its take on the top 100 courses in the U.S. recently. According to the web site, the list reflects the opinions of its millions of readers rather than experts ("editors of golf magazines"). It shows. As in major league baseball, whose all-star teams are largely decided by fan votes, the results can defy logic.
The top 10 is all over the place. I won't bellyache about #1 on the list, Bethpage Black on Long Island, NY, a

When you turn the choice of "best" over to fans, results can look bizarre.

U.S. Open site (and a public course), although this may be the first time it has ever been named top golf course in the U.S. Bethpage Black is widely hailed as one of the toughest courses in the nation, although not one the average golfer would want to play regularly (unless the average golfer were a masochist). The second and third place courses also won't generate too much controversy; Augusta National and Pine Valley are on most lists of best courses in the nation, and although I preferred Pine Valley by a wide margin, I have to acknowledge my judgment could be affected by having played the Master's venue on two dreary days in February. No azaleas, no lightning fast greens but, still, atmosphere to beat the band.
I don't know Kearney Hill Links in Lexington, KY, a 20-year old Pete Dye layout that ranks fourth on GolfLink's list. The courses rated #5 thru #7 all have solid reputations, respectively Riviera Country Club in California, World Woods (Barrens Course) in Florida and Koolau in Hawaii. The problem with the list really begins at #8 where GolfLink's readers place the wonderfully wacky, but not-to-everyone's-taste Tobacco Road in North Carolina. I suppose there is a list somewhere on which Tobacco Road should rank in the top 10 -- perhaps the list of most acres of un-raked sand -- but a best-courses list is not it. Tobacco Road's eighth place rating puts it ahead of Pebble Beach, Spyglass, Shinnecock, Merion, Oakmont and dozens of others it should trail.
As you move down the list, the choices become more and more illogical. Baywood Greens in Delaware is a

Is it time for a Ryder Cup at North Hampton Golf Club?

beautifully manicured public facility I played a few years ago. It features beautiful landscaping and a profusion of flora that would impress the greenskeeper at Augusta. But 10th best in the nation? I've played it, enjoyed it, and would rank it below the 25th best course on the list of those I have played (mindful that I haven't played 200 courses that are probably better). I've also played True Blue Golf Club in Pawleys Island, SC, many times, and although I find it interesting and fair, despite its too-large greens and unevenly tended waste areas where carts are permitted, its position at 38th on a list of best golf courses is just silly.
I also scratch my head over the 45th choice, North Hampton Golf Club in Fernandina Beach, FL, the best Arnold Palmer designed course I have played. It is a fine links style course a few miles from the beach, and its attractions include tall grasses that appear native, well placed bunkers (and not as huge as the typical Palmer traps) and shore breezes that can play with shot selection and your head. But if North Hampton is better than the Ocean Course at Kiawah and Oak Hill, as the GolfLink list suggests, someone had better let the organizers of the Ryder Cup know.

There are plenty of reasonably priced golf homes and properties near many of these courses. If you would like more information about golf communities in these areas or about other golf real estate, let me know by clicking the Contact Us button at the top of the page.

Caledonia Golf & Fish Club in Pawleys Island, SC, is rated 15th on the GolfLink list of best U.S. courses (approach to the par 4 13th hole is shown). Caledonia's sister course, True Blue, came in at 38th, ahead of courses that have hosted U.S. Open and Ryder Cup competitions. A number of condos priced in the low six figures are adjacent to a few of the fairways at True Blue.

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Mountain golf communities trip: Tell me where to go

Monday, 11 August 2008

I am hoping to play the new nine-hole course at Bear Lake Reserve, sited on the top of the mountain at the four-year old community near Sylva, NC.

I am putting together a five-day trip to the mountains of western North Carolina for the first week in September. My plans are to visit a few golf communities within an hour or so south of Asheville, an arc roughly from the Rutherfordton/Lake Lure area to Waynesville/Sylva and including the Hendersonville/Flat Rock area. Candidates on the list include Bright's Creek, Balsam Preserve, Cummings Cove, Queens Gap (Nicklaus golf course under construction) and possibly a round of golf at the Grove Park Inn on its famed Donald Ross course. If time permits, I might make a stop to play a quick round at Bear Lake Reserve, whose stunning nine-hole course opened a few days after my visit in June.
If you are interested in golf real estate in this popular and beautiful area, let me know which golf developments you are interested in, and I will try to put it on my visit list. Just use the Contact Us button in the tool bar above (or click here), and I promise to respond quickly.

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